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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 AKo

    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -

      BTN: $40.46
      SB: $5.37
      BB: $24.91
      Hero (UTG): $24.63
      MP: $5.52
      CO: $31.55

      Pre Flop: ($0.37) Hero is UTG with K :heart: A :club:
      Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.62) A :diamond: A :spade: 3 :club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

      Turn: ($4.12) Q :spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.00, BB calls $3

      River: ($10.12) J :club: (2 players)
      BB bets $7.59, Hero ???

      BB is unknown, 20/12 after 51 hands

      He can have 33/AQ/AJ, but would he donk river with worse? I think it's pretty close, cause all we beat is AT/A9/A8 maybe, as we cant presume that he would call preflop with worse Ax...
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello pcfmcc02,

      The problem is that I doubt that he would even Bet so big on the river with A5 or whatsoever. He must also understand that there ain't really many hands what Call him and that he easily has beat. Therefore vs such a line might even be fold on the river rather than a Call, AJ/AQ hardly beat us which will be mainly his calling range.

      We need ~33% equity for just break-even and for example if we even include some Ax combos:

      Board: A:diamond: A:spade: 3:club:  Q:spade:  J:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    78.95%  78.95%   0.00% { QQ-JJ, 33, AQs-ATs, AQo-ATo }
      UTG+1  21.05%  21.05%   0.00% { AcKh }

      not really the case, we kind of have to include a lot more combos.

      Best Regards.