[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 25 89s turn trips vs x/shove

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1778651
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $32.68 - VPIP: 45, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 69
      BB: $43.38 - VPIP: 37, PFR: 15, 3B: 3, AF: 0.8, Hands: 68
      Hero (UTG): $46.88 -
      MP: $25.00 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 6, 3B: 6, AF: 0.0, Hands: 32
      CO: $25.35 - VPIP: 53, PFR: 33, 3B: 13, AF: 4.6, Hands: 60
      BTN: $25.00 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 39

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 8 :diamond: 9 :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.87, 3 folds, SB calls $0.77, BB calls $0.62

      Flop: ($2.61) 9 :club: 9 :heart: K :spade: (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, SB folds, BB calls $2

      Turn: ($6.61) T :diamond: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $5.50, BB raises to $40.51, Hero folds

      I require 40% equity for BE point.

      My first calculation looks like this:


      Board: 9:club: 9:heart: K:spade:  T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    43.31%  41.91%   1.40% { 9d8d }
      MP3    56.69%  55.29%   1.40% { AA, TT, A9s, KTs-K9s, QJs, Q9s, J9s, T9s, A9o, KTo, QJo, T9o }



      But if I get out:
      -AA - he is prolly more aggressive with them till the turn or at least makes a smaller x/r
      -9T,K9,TT, he has no reason to shove fh's, I think he will usually x/r them smaller
      -KT

      I end up with this:


      Board: 9:club: 9:heart: K:spade:  T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    20.66%  18.39%   2.27% { 9d8d }
      MP3    79.34%  77.07%   2.27% { A9s, QJs, Q9s, J9s, A9o, QJo }



      Which one do you think is more accurate?
  • 4 replies