[NL20-NL50] NL25 ZOOM: FD on turn vs flop check/raise

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1779913
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $41.91 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 36
      SB: $12.64 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 9, AF: 8.0, Hands: 270
      BB: $28.89 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 18, 3B: 9, AF: 0.0, Hands: 51
      UTG: $25.00 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 23, 3B: 4, AF: 4.0, Hands: 73
      Hero (MP): $33.14 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 20, 3B: 5, AF: 3.4, Hands: 53562
      CO: $28.25 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 26, 3B: 8, AF: 0.0, Hands: 19

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with 8 :heart: 9 :heart:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 3 folds, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.60) T :club: K :heart: 4 :heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.00, BB raises to $3.40, Hero calls $2.40

      Turn: ($8.40) 8 :club: (2 players)
      BB bets $5.10, Hero calls $5.10

      River: ($18.60) J :diamond: (2 players)
      BB bets $9.30, Hero folds


      I have a difficulty determining whether or not I have sufficient implied odds to make the call on the turn. His check/raise range on the flop probably consists of 44, TT, sometimes KT, a FD with broadways, QJ or, rarely, a GS maybe. If the river pairs and he pushes I am in a tough spot, and if it completes the flush my opponent can have a better flush or may even check/fold the river (with a set he might check/call from time to time). If my calculations are correct, I have to be able to get ~12$ out of him every time when I hit to break even, and I am not too sure if the call on the turn is justifiable.
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I would be worried mostly two hands KT and 44, sometimes he has there also Tx of hearts.
      I think you can´t fold turn, since he has still QJ and flushdraws (sometimes air in his range) that he may give up on the river, also you have 11 river cards (9 flushes and 2 eights) where you can always call him down. 9 is kind of tricky, since it would give you two pair, but also improves his QJ, so I think there you can consider folding if he shoves.

      If board was KhTh4c8c I may consider shoving turn, since I´m ahead all of his draws and I don´t always have to improve to take down pot.

      best regards,