I think Asaban is right.

For a start variance is part of the game. You need to take that into account. It needs to be part of your calculations.

Bankroll Management suggests that for MTTs you should have 100BIs. So that would be either $200, or $300. That's how you calculate variance, you plan for the worst.

I agree tournament one, MTT1 is better. If you have the bankroll & patience for it. You might have to play a lot of them before you see a cent. That requires a hell of a lot of patience and after 10 tournaments without a place (or maybe even just missing the bubble a few times you'll need a lot of discipline to maintain your best game).

If you want some basic calculations here are some that might inform your decisions.

For $2 you are getting.

$1250 / 78 = $16. So effectively without looking at the site's rake it is a $16 dollar tournament.

(4/78) x 100 = 5.12% theoretically you would cash if everyone in the field have an equal skill level (they won't).

So theoretically you would be cashing once every 20 BIs.

But you need to account for variance. It could be 25, 30, 50 or even more before you even cash once. You'd need a lot of patience, discipline, and endurance to cash for this one I think. Patience & Discipline are certainly two problems with my game, I don't know about yours. That's the challenge.

For $3 you are getting.

$2500 / 565 = $4.42. Still good.

(40/565) x 100 = 7.07%. Although the decent prizes are in the top 10.

Every ~14 BIs.

For academtic interest alone, the comparable prizes start at 5th place and above for MTT2. So (5/565 x 100 = 0.88%) compared to 5.12% although the top 2 prizes for the 2nd one are higher.

As Asaban saids it all depends on which tournaments suit you best. You're likely to bubble more often with MTT1, as by that point it is basically going to be Shove or fold, the skill is getting to near the bubble I guess. With MTT2 you will find it easier to cash but equally as hard to get the top cash prizes. If you think you can do it, can handle the bad beats and if you have the bankroll. Then MTT1 is a better ROI.

Good luck.

IN SUMMARY: After all that jibber jabber. Take the Number of Players. Divide by the number of paid places. That is one way of looking at a MTT's value. Not necessarily the best way. And remember Banroll Management.

I'm a bit of a novice with the number side of poker so please correct any errors or assumptions I've made.

Also what site is this? PartyPoker gets nowhere even close to $16 value for $2 BI. All the guaranteed tournaments get close to or exceed their guarantee.