Yes, you have some good points, but i still want to go more deeply in to this.
I will try to compare different situations accordingly to what kind of player we are facing. And at the end draw a conclusion.
1) He is a loose agressive player and also a calling station:
Actions:
- He will reraise with weak hands
- He will call with all the weak hands
His reraising range is in this picture:
http://i45.tinypic.com/2vmu2c4.jpg
Equity:
Equity Win Tie
Hero 60.72% 58.52% 2.20% { AcQc }
Villain 39.28% 37.07% 2.20% { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Out of 10,000 hands the profit will be:
Win = 6072 * 1,16$ = 7043,52$
Loss = 3928* -1,16$ = - 4556,48$
Total: 2487,04$
2) He is a loose agressive player, but capable of folding the worst hands:
Actions:
- He will raise with weak hands
- He will fold weak hands to a all-in
The reraise range is the same as last time but here is his calling range to an all-in:
http://i49.tinypic.com/6tfcbo.jpg
He will fold 40 of 58 times giving us:
Win = 6896,55 *0,22$ = 1517,24$
He will call 18 of 58 times and then the equity is this:
Equity Win Tie
Hero 51.05% 45.88% 5.18% { AcQc }
Villan 48.95% 43.77% 5.18% { 77+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }
Win = 1567,24 * 1,16$ = 1818$
Loss= 1519,14 * -1,16$ = -1762,2$
Total: 1573,04$
3) Tight player:
Actions:
- He will raise good hands
- He will call all-in with the same hands
The reraise range is according to the BSS starting hand chart:
http://i50.tinypic.com/2uhl8nq.jpg
Equity Win Tie
Hero 34.36% 33.42% 0.94% { AcQc }
Villain 65.64% 64.70% 0.94% { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Win = 3436 * 1,16$ = 3985,76$
Loss = 6564 * -1,16$ = -7614,24$
Total: -3628,48$
Coparison:
Reraising all-in when he is a a terrible player: + 2477,76$
Reraising all-in when he is a bit loose but is able of folding: + 1573,04$
Reraising all-in when he playes decent: -3628,5$
Conlusion:
We can see that we have to move all-in against more than two bad players everytime we meet a good player. Although you play agains a terrible player: reraising with Q8s, A2s and calling all-in you still dont earn more than you lose against a tight player.
I usually follow the rule: better to be the safe than sorry and this is a decision that is kind of edgy to me, therefore i want to fold.
Comment: My calculations can be wrong, so feel free to recalculate.
I am new to this game, so i dont know all there is about different kinds of odds and plays. If i miss some important thing like then please tell me how much it would effect the decision and so on.