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[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #37 03.06.12

    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PokerStrategists,

      as some of you may have heard that we have a homework in each of our No-Limit Hand Evaluation Coachings.

      Here is the homework for the coaching from June 3rd, please note:

      • Everybody is invited to share his thoughts here regardless if you joined the last coaching or not.
      • Whoever is active in the homework threads can get a free database analysis by us which helps you to improve your game.

      Find the hand below waiting for you opinions and analysis posted in this thread. Furthermore do not forget to join our next coaching on Sunday, June 10th at 1 PM GMT.

      $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $56.75 (113.5 bb)
      BTN: $151.18 (302.4 bb)
      Hero (SB): $54.97 (109.9 bb)
      MP: $26.56 (53.1 bb)
      BB: $32.33 (64.7 bb)
      UTG: $50 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A T
      3 folds, BTN raises to $1, Hero raises to $3, BB raises to $5, BTN calls $4, Hero calls $2

      Flop: ($15) 9 J 9 (3 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks, BTN checks

      Turn: ($15) 5 (3 players)
      Hero bets $9.50, BB folds, BTN calls $9.50

      River: ($34) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $40.47 and is all-in

      BU is 27/23, solid reg with 45% BU steal
      BB is 58/23 fish with ~3%3bet on 85 hands

      Preflop is a resteal, BB respected my 3bets in the past, his sizing just was too small to fold for me.
      After the PFA and the BU check this flop their range is capped to weak TPs or 2nd pair type hands, therefore I bet turn and ship the river since I'm pretty sure the Reg is able to fold his weak range vs an overbet.
      Overplayed / too spewy?
  • 9 replies
    • asimos
      Joined: 21.07.2011 Posts: 1,443
      turn: The problem by betting the turn is that we don't know if the fish will fold.
      river: On the river it doesn't make sense for BTN to call the turn and fold this river. So if the reg is solid and doesn't over folds on river (what is his wtsd,wsd,fold river bet stats?) I do not like river shove either.

      ps. : first again! :) :s_cool:
    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Preflop I thought at first its bad to call when BB has low 3bet value, and reg also calls, but hero is getting good odds, so maybe he can call to try to hit monster, or catch an ace and win vs KK, QQ hands for example.

      Flop I guess OOP nothing is posible to do, so check is ok.

      Turn we have nothing to represent, don't know, fish could easily have slowplay JJ+. BTN as he is reg, if he would have a hand, he would probably bet the flop to get value from fish, so more likely that he has no hand.

      As played river - I don't know what BTN could have there. If he has Jx, he might fold, but if he would have this, I think he would bet flop. I don't do myself such bluffs.
    • Lightfoot363
      Joined: 24.04.2011 Posts: 7,926
      i think preflop, the call is fine because we're getting good odds and the fish is in the hand as well.

      Flop: i would check/fold

      Turn: as they both are checking behind we can bet/fold the Turn as pure bluff.

      But I don't see their range is so capped as Hero said. I still see there slowplaying some Monsters 99,J9,JJ (BTN) and the fish could also playing 99,J9,JJ,QQ,KK,AA like this.

      But there are also some draws which could call the Turn, so therefore if we bet the turn we should think about bet/fold the River as well. And the BTN can have there a lot of draws because he is stealing a lot. So he can have many FDs, some gutshots (78, KQ,) and also some OESD (QT, T8) and also combodraws like gutshot+FD. and of course as hero mentioned some 2nd Pairs and AJ,KJ,QJ,JT.

      So I see BTNs calling Range in the Turn like this: JJ, 99, AJs, KJs, QTs+, J9s, T8s+, 98s, KdQd, 8d7d, AJo, KJo, J9o = these are 82 combinations.

      On the River I think BTN is always calling: JJ, 99, J9s, 98s, J9o
      and sometimes he is calling AJ (maybe 8 combinations out of 16).
      so he is calling 44 combinations.

      So if he is calling we loose 44*40,47=1790,8

      if Villain is folding we win: 38*34=1292

      So the push should be not profitable. But I think we can bet smaller without getting more calls from Villian.

      so if we bet like 25$ we are only loosing: 44*25=1100 and our bet on the River is profitable then.

      Ps: maybe the Range is not that fine because i don't play SH, and i'm also far from playing NL50 ;)
    • William340
      Joined: 10.02.2012 Posts: 170
      pre-flop - I don't like the 3B sizing. we are raising 3x on BTN min-raise.
      should be bigger because we are SB and going to be OOP.
      plus, our hand is nothing special, so it would be better to take it down pre-flop than try to play it post-flop.

      after the BB fish basically cold 4B's, I would be looking for the exit.
      but since it's so ridiculously small, and BTN calls, we are priced in to see the flop.

      the problem is: was his min 4B a pot-sweetener or an attempt to get BTN or us to re-raise big, or is he just a fish that doesn't even "know" he just 4B ?

      flop is certainly not good for our hand. check/fold is our line

      on the turn, my feelings are mixed.
      we are donking into two players with no hand and our only chance of ending up with a hand is backdoor flush or runner-runner for straight. not great either way.
      and either of the villains could be slow playing a real hand.

      on the other hand, if we are going to have ANY realistic chance of stealing this pot, we need to act before one of the other players does, because we can never call here. the 5:spade: means neither of our longshot draws is still alive. at best, we are now drawing to 3 outs (aces) and probably could still lose if we hit.
      so if we are going to take it, now is the time.

      but - I still wonder.
      right now there is only $5 (< 10%) of our stack in the pot.
      after our turn bet, over 25% of our stack is in the pot, we don't have a hand, and with only one card to come, we are not likely to end up with a hand.

      the result seems like good news bad/news.
      one player folded, but we are still in the pot w/ the decent player.
      and his call could mean a lot of things.
      like he's happy to let us build the pot . . . .

      the river
      SPR is now 1.2.
      it's hard for me to think that any hand that called the turn will fold after the river.
      if he was playing 8T, he just made the straight
      if he has been slowplaying us, we are doomed.
      so I guess our only hope is that we can get him to fold 22-66 and 88 or a better A?

      if it were me, I'd be wondering how I ended up w/ $14.50 in this pot.
      I would not have the heart or the read to bluff shove here.

      the only positive I can see is that the BTN is supposed to be decent, so he could lay down here.
      but he did not lay down on the turn and he was only getting 2.57:1 w/ one card to come.
      what draw does that make sense for? nothing really, so we need him to fold an actual made hand, I think.

      btw - I guess the spoiler is set up wrong?
      we already know the result, and it does not reveal the BTN hand, so not sure what the point was.
      if the BTN fold was hidden, or our action was hidden, that would make more sense.
    • Holidej
      Joined: 03.05.2011 Posts: 107
      Preflop: I would 3bet bigger against min raise~4$. And then after the fish comes over the top, I don't know, I would fold. Yes we get great odds but our hand is so marginal and weak that it can bring us nothing but trouble in multiway pot.

      flop Check/fold

      turn I don't like this bluff against two players in position at us, just not enough fold equity.

      river Well since we were bluffing turn, I like river shove.I know I shouldn't like that and we are probably beaten, but I would do that :D Some weak top pairs, second pairs and draws will fold.
    • Xeonz123
      Joined: 22.08.2011 Posts: 273
      PreFlop: Priced in

      Flop: Check/Fold.

      Turn: Check/Fold, 3 Guys in the pot + OP for river.

      River : Check/Fold.
    • zoty79
      Joined: 31.03.2010 Posts: 1,325
      At first we need stats from Villain!
      We dont kwow, how often he folds at flop, turn , river!
      BTN seems to be a callingstation!I would c/f flop, c/f turn, and c/f river.
      But as played, i would b/f the river, and don´t push it! The BTN could easy has a pair, that he couldnt fold!
    • toteatoo
      Joined: 15.11.2011 Posts: 250
      BU is openraising very weak, only 2bb, I would 3bet to 9bb=$4.5; As played, BB and BU gives us good odds for call, but the problem is:
      • we will be OOP against two players postflop
      • we can hit only two pairs or gutshot at best; we even won't hit FD, it is probable, that opponents hold our outs
      • if we hit A or T, we have high reversed implied odds

      Therefore I am inclined to fold it preflop

      As played although they both checked flop, in their range are some slowplayed overpairs, pocket pairs, overcards, which will often want to stay in the play, I would't blufbet against these opponents.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      Preflop: Rather would advice to fold it preflop cause your main hope is to hit the GS draw or whatsoever. The pot already the flop is going to be pretty huge and the implied odds wont be very good. Nor you can never-ever be sure how good your T pair is not pair of Ace. If you calling the flop then most likely on the turn the pot would be already too big and might be difficult to get away. Rather fold it here.

      As played
      Postflop: Don't really like turning my hand into bluff in multiway pot. They could even have traps here so not worth.

      Best Regards.