How long is the long run

    • kipperkalle
      kipperkalle
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2009 Posts: 126
      Started playing poker again and it has been cruesome experience thus far.

      Got 3 really tough stretches of losing tons of BB's. I don't mind losing when I'm playing bad but these bad streches are caused by people playing 96o and capping againt my AK preflop and somehow beating me. It's not unheard of, but if you get those things like 3 or 4 times in a row, it messes with your head.

      I kinda know I have some bad plays, but I feel I donät deserve this:


      So ok. 4k hands might not be enough to call it quits. But how many hands should you play to decide if you can make it or not? To make the matters worse, it's just 0.05/0.10 FL FR.
  • 23 replies
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      100K
    • bogstratos
      bogstratos
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2012 Posts: 161
      4K is nowhere near a good sample too see if you are running bad or just playing bad. 100K is what you should be looking for, as what JB said.

      And 2,5 BIs isn't that much of a loss really in 4K hands.

      Post hands in the evaluation forum (very important imo), ask for help and study!
    • mccol001
      mccol001
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.07.2010 Posts: 170
      Yeh, 100k is usually the sample I go for. :)
    • Targetme
      Targetme
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      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,888
      is fixed limit even beatable anymore they could be bots!
    • nefarious26
      nefarious26
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 413
      50k hand should give you a good idea 100k+ would be better

      Long run = Life
    • Mikus8
      Mikus8
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      Joined: 06.10.2011 Posts: 240
      what about tournaments?
    • kipperkalle
      kipperkalle
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2009 Posts: 126
      Originally posted by Targetme
      is fixed limit even beatable anymore they could be bots!
      I think it is. There's tons of bad players at that level - if these are bots, they have to be the stupidest bots ever. Or luckiest.

      I just have my doubts. Maybe I'm just playing bad. Dunno.

      I was just wondering where is the right time to make some conclusions. 100k sounds good if only my poker roll lasts that long. Don't really wanna lose it though.
    • kipperkalle
      kipperkalle
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2009 Posts: 126
      Originally posted by Mikus8
      what about tournaments?
      I've done pretty well on freerolls, not sure if good enough to win regular tournament/SnG games. Would still prefer to become good at one thing first.
    • nefarious26
      nefarious26
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 413
      post some hands in the relevant forums, if your playing bad dont wait 100k or lose your roll to find this out
    • PhoenixPhreak
      PhoenixPhreak
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2011 Posts: 335
      Originally posted by kipperkalle
      I was just wondering where is the right time to make some conclusions. 100k sounds good if only my poker roll lasts that long. Don't really wanna lose it though.
      If you only make it there? What limit are you playing? What is your current BR?
      If you lose 2.5 Big Stack Strategy buyins and are worried about having money left to make it to 100k, you probably are playing too high a limit.
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      what about lose with premium hands like AA and KK systematically cross a period of couple weeks (I mean lose with that every time, everyday for several days)?

      Well, if that make you feel less lonely and with your own, I confirm that's happening right now to some1 in the world (me :D )

      About how long is the long run, well, as you (Im sure) have hear already, it is too long!!! :f_cool:

      All the best to you my friend and GL to the tables :)

      P.S. I was going to forgot the best/important part of my reply, as mentioned already by other memebrs above, post some hands so, peoples may helps you better as sometime what we believe is correct isn't necessary the truth ;)
    • robinripper
      robinripper
      Black
      Joined: 17.08.2010 Posts: 1,694
      It's really hard to say what the long run is. I used to think 50k hands but now I'm leaning closer to 500k hands. The problem is that during that time you improve and you will never get an accurate sample because your play will change in the time you play those hands...

      But people seriously underestimate variance....

      There are samples of 50k hands where I'm a decent loser and samples where I'm a big winner and I feel like I've been playing pretty much the same for both samples.... so all you can really do is just try to make the best decisions possible in every situation and try to improve.
    • kipperkalle
      kipperkalle
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2009 Posts: 126
      Thanks people, will follow your advice as much as I can. I kinda from this thread that I should just concentrate on getting better and not worry too much about results now.

      500k hand sample kinda puts it in perspective :f_cool:

      Originally posted by PhoenixPhreak
      If you only make it there? What limit are you playing? What is your current BR?
      If you lose 2.5 Big Stack Strategy buyins and are worried about having money left to make it to 100k, you probably are playing too high a limit.
      Playing FL 0.05/0.10. Don't really feel like dropping down, still have necessary BR to continue on that level. Not much difference with that anyway.
    • darkpenance0
      darkpenance0
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.10.2010 Posts: 156
      I have a similar problem at the moment, though I'm breaking even after 5000 hands so its not really the same.

      It all depends if you THINK you are playing well or not.

      TBH though if that was me having lost over $200 in that amount of hands I would be seriously questioning my play.

      It may be your on a bad run but even so you shouldn't be losing THAT much playing 0.5/0.10 stakes in such a small amount of hands.

      Maybe you should post some hands in the evaluation forum and maybe recap on some training videos just to double check your not playing like a complete moron. :D
    • kipperkalle
      kipperkalle
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2009 Posts: 126
      Originally posted by darkpenance0
      I have a similar problem at the moment, though I'm breaking even after 5000 hands so its not really the same.

      It all depends if you THINK you are playing well or not.

      TBH though if that was me having lost over $200 in that amount of hands I would be seriously questioning my play.

      It may be your on a bad run but even so you shouldn't be losing THAT much playing 0.5/0.10 stakes in such a small amount of hands.

      Maybe you should post some hands in the evaluation forum and maybe recap on some training videos just to double check your not playing like a complete moron. :D
      It' more like $20, I would have gotten away hella fast if it were $200. Chart shows BB's not $.
    • streamXQQ
      streamXQQ
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.05.2012 Posts: 20
      [offtopic]
      where can i find such graphs for myself?
      [/offtopic]
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,907
      Originally posted by streamXQQ
      [offtopic]
      where can i find such graphs for myself?
      [/offtopic]
      They are generated by programs such as Hold'em Manager

      Regards,
      --VS.
    • acceleration123
      acceleration123
      Gold
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 5,311
      Very long.
    • kipperkalle
      kipperkalle
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2009 Posts: 126
      Kinda feeling better and wiser.

      Although there are many "why me" type of threads, having one all for myself has been pretty good for letting steam out. Thanks for encouragment and whatever else was offered here. :f_biggrin:

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