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[NL2-NL10] NL5 TPTK vs overbetting LAG

    • diablik7
      Joined: 11.06.2008 Posts: 709
      PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP+1: $14.21
      CO: $16.41
      BTN: $5.00
      SB: $10.35
      BB: $5.00
      UTG: $11.50
      Hero (UTG+1): $8.85
      MP: $6.58

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has A:diamond: K:spade:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.18, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.16, fold

      SB: 40 hands, VPIP 35, PFR 23
      Aggression on flop: 83% (9/11), quite good sample I think, I saw him overbetting few times.

      He's actually the fish of this table so I'm happy with this call.
      I saw him calling big push with gutshot on turn few hands earlier. Fortunately he hit it ;)

      Flop: ($0.41, 2 players) K:club: 2:club: 9:diamond:
      SB bets $1.05, Hero calls $1.05

      I guess that most of his range here are pairs (he could have all of the Kxs, some Kxo + a lot of 9) which I beat. The only hands which beat me are sets (99, 22) and K9. He could have K2s. I think he would 2nd barrel enough (probably overbet too) to make simple call profitable.

      Should I raise to protect my hand from FD? I thought that this could kill the action.

      Turn: ($2.51, 2 players) 4:heart:
      SB bets $2.70, Hero ?

      I think I'm still ahead. I analyzed it with Equilab and I put him on range:

      sets (99, 44, 22)
      K2s - KQs
      K9o - KQo
      Q :club: 9 :club: , J :club: 9 :club: , T :club: 9 :club: , 9 :club: 8 :club: , 5 :club: 4 :club:

      I've got nearly 70% against this range.

      If I shove he needs 30% equity to call so I think he's commited.

      Is my range estimation good? Does he have less top pairs?
  • 3 replies