Calculate all-ins EV

    • gigenieks
      gigenieks
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      Joined: 18.10.2010 Posts: 130
      Harrington suggests in his book - Harrington on Online Cash Games - 6 Max No Limit Holdem - to take notes after your sessions.

      They are:
      1. Your results in the session
      2. The results of all the all-in moves that occurred.


      So I'm making now item no. 2...

      I will quote from book:

      However, our hero could make his life a lot easier by tracking his all-in results in addition to his overall results. Tracking your all-ins just means noting all the hands where either you or your opponent got all the chips in the midde, looking at the situation where the all-in occured, figuring out your expected gain or loss (using a program like PokerStove), and comparing your expected gain or loss to your actual gain or loss.


      and further he says this:

      By calculating the expectation of the hand when the all-in occurs, and comparing that number to the actual result, you can see whether you were lucky or unlucky, and exactly how much you profited from good luck or were hurt by bad luck.


      So, how can I calculate the "expected value" from those all-ins? Can I do this with PT4? Or do I need to have another software for that purpose? Which one then?
  • 10 replies
    • fruktpuff
      fruktpuff
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      Joined: 24.09.2010 Posts: 3,982
      Hi giginieks,

      I've moved your thread to the relevant board.

      I haven't used PT4 myself as I'm a HM2 guy, but I believe all tracking programs will offer this information by default in the hands overview.

      You'll normally have status like "$won" and "EV$won" stats available in the hands sections.
      Some tracking software also has a separate "% to win when All-in" stat on its own available.

      If you wish to study specific scenarios you can use software such as our PokerStrategy.com Equilab where you can enter the holecards against both the range you have a villain on or a specific hand, and add the cards of each street and it will do the calculations for what percentage to win each hand is, as well as percentages to tie the hand.

      Regards,
      Richard
    • nefarious26
      nefarious26
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      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 413
      Did you really move this Thread to Beginners Questions? :D
    • gigenieks
      gigenieks
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      I made also similar topic in Poker Tracker 4 preview forums.

      I hope someone can help me, and answer my questions... :s_frown:
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
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      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      Loooooooong post in PT4 forums. But in short:

      EV= excpected value. Now this can be anything from a single action to certain line of a hand, or multiple hands or a long run.

      All-in EV= the amount of money you should have won if all the all-in situations had ended exactly with equities.

      I am not really sure how PT4 works, but in HEM there is a stat "All-in EV adjusted winnings" which adjusts your overall winnings with all-in equities.

      You don't have to make any excel sheets, as you can filter the stuff with PT4. There are tons of filters and as you like to roll with numbers you should get familiar with them.

      All-in equity varies from 0 to 100, as you can never have more than 100% chance of winning a pot. Or less than 0.

      You have a lot of questions, and I am little lost on what is the main question. So if this didn't help, please ask simple and short questions and I (or someone else) will be happy to answer. :)
    • gigenieks
      gigenieks
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      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      I am not really sure how PT4 works, but in HEM...
      I'm interested in PT4 not HEM, because PT4 is free now. And I'm getting used to PT4's interface.


      You don't have to make any excel sheets, as you can filter the stuff with PT4. There are tons of filters...
      Maybe, but I don't know how. I'm using for first time poker tracking software. I have almost no "basic knowledge" of them.
      It's like trying to do something without exact steps in Photoshop, it's very unlikely you will find magically exactly what you need by "experimenting".


      All-in equity varies from 0 to 100, as you can never have more than 100% chance of winning a pot. Or less than 0.
      So to calculate what on long-term I "should" win on average. [formula is: $ = % [All-In Equity] of Total Pot] ?



      You have a lot of questions, and I am little lost on what is the main question.
      Theory
      • What is the difference between "EV" and "All-In Equity"?
      • Is Harrington talking about "EV" or "All-In Equity" in his chapter - Expectation and Expected Value ? (see quotes I provided in PT4 forums)


      Practice
      1. How can I or PT4 calculate exactly how much "should" I won / lost in particular instance?
      2. Can (in PT4) this data be represented as graph?
    • gigenieks
      gigenieks
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      Joined: 18.10.2010 Posts: 130
      Hmm... this - not the most popular topic in PS.com :/
      :s_biggrin:
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
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      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Originally posted by gigenieks
      Theory
      • What is the difference between "EV" and "All-In Equity"?
      • Is Harrington talking about "EV" or "All-In Equity" in his chapter - Expectation and Expected Value ? (see quotes I provided in PT4 forums)


      Practice
      1. How can I or PT4 calculate exactly how much "should" I won / lost in particular instance?
      2. Can (in PT4) this data be represented as graph?
      The first one is fairly straightforward:
      EV == Expected value, and is a fairly general term. We think of ANY action as increasing our expected value ( +EV ) or decreasing it ( -EV ).
      Equity on the other hand, is specific, can be calculated, and refers to the portion of the pot that you own. For example, if you hold AA, and put the villain on AQ+, JJ+, you have 85% equity against that range. In a $1 pot, then your EV is the $ value of your equity, or $0.85

      All-in-equity, is equity calculated by using the two exact hands AT THE MOMENT THAT YOU WENT ALL-IN. I think, then that All-in-EV and All-in-Equity would be equivalent phrases.

      If I understand correctly, All-in-EV is ONLY calculated of one of the players is all-in.
      On any hand where no player is all-in, the graph line follows the win/loss line.

      For me, I pretty much disregard this now, except to console myself when I'm sucked out on. As in, "Well, I lost 4 buy-ins tonight, but my all-in-EV line says I should have won $1.25".
      Since I can't take All-in-Equity to the store and spend it, it really doesn't help much.

      I am reasonably sure that Harrington is talking about EV here. "All-in-Equity" (or EV) is an artifact of tracking software. People have always been able to calculate it manually, but like I say, it does not have much value in helping improve play.

      Note: If it DOES help improve play, I would like to know how!

      BTW, do you use Equilab? It is the tool used to calculate equities

      --VS
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
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      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      I am reasonably sure that Harrington is talking about EV here. "All-in-Equity" (or EV) is an artifact of tracking software. People have always been able to calculate it manually, but like I say, it does not have much value in helping improve play.

      Note: If it DOES help improve play, I would like to know how!
      Back in the days when Harrington made the book there were no PT's and HEM's. So usually they have no idea how they run compared to their EV. I think that Harrington tried to say that if you make winnings only by being lucky (e.g. run over your EV) you should be worried.

      Of course there is that legendary long run and big enough sample size, that's another thing.
    • gigenieks
      gigenieks
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      Joined: 18.10.2010 Posts: 130
      Originally posted by Kyyberi
      Back in the days when Harrington made the book there were no PT's and HEM's.
      The book was published ~ in June 2010, right?
      There were no PTs and HEMs in 2010??
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
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      It was published 2004.