Mass Anger

    • undercover82
      undercover82
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      Today i had the shittiest session ever luck wise , and i am quite fucking angry because i ve been running like shit the whole month. So atm i am "15k below expectation" and my patience is running thin , and i dont wanna hear preachings about variance until i run 15k above expectation.
      This would be easily my biggest month ever if i hadnt run like this , and tbh i dont see me having 15k luckbox month anytime soon.
      So i have to get this off my chest. Fuck you party.
      That's all.
  • 11 replies
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,572
      Drop down a limit?
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      welcome to the club

      well, except I play like 10x lower than you do
    • Drakhor
      Drakhor
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2008 Posts: 554
      15k below expectation? Well, what is/was your expectation? ;)
    • Snodreliss
      Snodreliss
      Silver
      Joined: 23.12.2007 Posts: 1,280
      Downswing aswell here 9 BI at NL100 and 10BI on NL50, I just run into set and overpair over overpair each time.. Can't remember last time I won a big pot with KK..
      PartyPoker has put a megadownswing to all pokerstrategy members!?:p
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      we have reason to believe they are in possession of Weapons of Mass Downswing
    • undercover82
      undercover82
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      Calmed down.
      Was a -5.5k session , and i ran 5.5k below expectation , meaning i would break even under "normal luck". I woudlnt mind that much if my whole month wasnt like this. During my 4 first months of this year i was exactly at 0 , so it better even out sooner or later ~_~.
      My expectation was 33k so far. But if this goes on i ll probably end up broke :D .
      Well gl to us all i guess o_O
    • undercover82
      undercover82
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      18k below expectation now and i lost AA vs AA .I think i might have hit a doomswitch o_O.
      Btw , am i supposed to be down overall to consider im downswinging ?
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Silver
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      Originally posted by undercover82
      18k below expectation now and i lost AA vs AA .I think i might have hit a doomswitch o_O.
      Btw , am i supposed to be down overall to consider im downswinging ?
      imo no. i know i definitely regard my breakeven month as a massive downswing.
    • hova
      hova
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2006 Posts: 3,677
      I ran up 115k hands 50NL of me (obviously 50NL i will be getting in the money 70-80% alot) being 16 stacks under EV after 115k hands. Poker takes alot of hands for you to even out, you should know that by now :)
      If you know a little german: http://fold4value.blogspot.com/2007/06/varianz.html
      ..else cliffnotes: you can be a winning player over 100-200k hands although you are actually a real losingplayer, and also vice versa if you are a real 4ptbb winner you can easily be losing or breaking even after 100k hands. The article also reasons why there aren't probably any people with a true winrate of over 4-5ptbb.
      Good luck anyways.

      edit: I think key to handling shortterm results is to be mentally unstressed everytime you play a session and handle each hand and each session in vacuum never considering being on a down or upswing. Down-, up- and evenswings can be found regarding the past. You can never know if you are in a down/upswing or being even, variance in a game as poker is too big. You can analyse in hindsight whether your standard-deviation on a stretch of x hands was higher than the usual ~40BB/100 SD.
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Originally posted by hova
      edit: I think key to handling shortterm results is to be mentally unstressed everytime you play a session and handle each hand and each session in vacuum never considering being on a down or upswing. Down-, up- and evenswings can be found regarding the past. You can never know if you are in a down/upswing or being even, variance in a game as poker is too big. You can analyse in hindsight whether your standard-deviation on a stretch of x hands was higher than the usual ~40BB/100 SD.
      #2
      Very true!!!
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      Well, it happens to the best of us I guess. During my extended downswing I dropped down from NL400 to NL100 in 2 months and I can't recall having 2 winning days after each other. Variance can be a real pain in the ass, but don't get into doomscenario's where you'll lose everything. It does in fact, even out, though it may take a while. It took me another 3,5 months to do so, but I got there, and there's no reason why this wouldn't be the case with you.