OK, here goes my detailed analysis:
1)
...there is a fish in the blinds and I wanted to get max value. If the fish wasn't in the blinds, I'd open to 3x..
I don't understand this, but maybe I know what is the idea behind this:
If that fish called your 4x bb bet, you assume it would be
easier him to call rest of your bets?
I have better question - do you think that 1-1.5 bb makes such a difference? Isn't it safe to assume if fish called your preflop bet, he will call you in later streets no matter how much he invested: 2.5 bb or 5 bb? Well, because he is fish.
Anyway, lets go further:
2) You said:
I don't take the 5% 3bet as the actual value, I suspect he 3bets more.
You have more than 350 hands on him, I don't get why are you suspicious of HM "3-Bet Preflop" accuracy?
Answer? :
since he's a Regular with a decent stats+winrate.
How does villain being Regular and having decent winrate falsify his "3-bet preflop" statistic??!
3) As veriz already pointed and I agree
you shouldn't called his bet in flop. Why?
Because you had "enough" evidence to believe he has a stronger hand than yours:
- He 3bet's you preflop ("3-bet preflop" = 6%)
- He makes continuation bet, and seems like flop only helped him (taking into account his possible hand range).
I mean you have nothing, not even a pair, only inside straight possibility. OK, you thought his continuation bet stat is quite high - he has nothing you have Ace high (3-bet preflop - 6% - nothing?) so you called.
4) It's turn. Comes 2nd King, which doesn't help you at all, wheras it could helped him a lot (if he has K). He bets, you call.
5) It's river. Comes 3rd King, which doesn't change anything. You suddenly decide to go all-in??! Why?
You don't have even a pair...
I would like to ask: are you familiar with concept:
Pot Control?
If not, I will quote Harrington on this matter:
Pot control is a concept that arises on the turn and the river. The basic idea is to keep the pot small with a hand which may be the best hand, but which is not strong enough to commit your whole stack.
While I did this analysis even I didn't play your hand I become aware I have done same mistakes as you - this certainly helped me, I hope it served you as well!