how many hands is a good sample?

    • darkpenance0
      darkpenance0
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.10.2010 Posts: 156
      I had taken a break from poker while my money cleared from 888. I put half of my winnings into William Hill to take advantage of the sweet bonus.

      The problem is that after 3000 hands I'm just about break even, in fact I'm up a massive $7!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! well actually $27 but 20 of that is from the bonus so it doesn't really count :P

      Anyway this is not where I wanted to be at this point, I wanted to have made at least $100 from this amount of hands.

      Does this indicate that I should change my game? Is 3000 hands to small a sample to indicate if you've got leaks you need to fix? If so how many hands do I need to play in order to know if my game needs to be changed?
  • 10 replies
    • ragney
      ragney
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      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      It all depends...

      A good sample is 50k hands obv, but if you lost 20BI after 20k hands than you probably have a (major) leak.

      3000 hands is nothing, even the players who beat their stake can be down up to 10BI after 3000 hands.

      Highly recommend to post your hh's, let judge evaluate your leaks.
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
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      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      yeah multiply that sample by 10 and it's still pretty small as far as samples go!

      i think you will find that being so results oriented will only leave you disappointed..
    • fruktpuff
      fruktpuff
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      Joined: 24.09.2010 Posts: 3,982
      Hi darkpenance0,

      As ragney and DrDunne have already pointed out, 3000 is really nothing close to a reasonable sample size.

      Normally we'd suggest maybe 50000-100000 before any conclusions can be drawn.

      You say you expected to be up $100 already after 3000 hands, what limits do you play?

      We always suggest you should use our hand evaluation forums, to which I could link you to the relevant one if you tell me which limits an gametype you play, to help find leaks and improve your play.

      I've also moved your post to a more relevant board.

      Looking forward to your reply.

      Regards,
      Richard
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
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      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,926
      Solid advice ITT.

      How are you finding the player skill difference between WH and 888? Normally 888 is regarded as softer but still 3k hands is not enough to make any decision on that either I suppose.


      Regards,
      Gary
    • darkpenance0
      darkpenance0
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.10.2010 Posts: 156
      generally speaking the players on William Hill seem more likely to raise than call which does make it harder.

      Example - I'm in the CO with KQ.

      888 -
      2 limpers, I raise the pot, blinds fold and the 2 limpers call.

      Flop = J67 rainbow, it checks to me I bet 3/4 and take it down.

      William Hill
      Folds to me in the CO, I raise 3x, folds to BB who reraises, I call

      Flop = J67 rainbow, he bets 2/3, I fold.

      I've found that players are far more aggressive when it comes to playing OOP, they would much rather raise or fold, which is great when you have AA,KK,QQ but not so great when you have KQ. 888 players would just call from the BB and then check fold if they miss.

      Of course thats just a general rule and 888 does have some decent players.

      I played 10/20 on 888 but on WH I moved down to 5/10 to get a feel for the players and yeah, generally you get tougher opponents.

      I'll post some graphs soon so you can see.
    • kruger32
      kruger32
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      Joined: 14.05.2011 Posts: 242
      $100 from 3k hands, which limit?
    • ThatGuyMatt
      ThatGuyMatt
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      Joined: 03.12.2010 Posts: 3,758
      Originally posted by kruger32
      $100 from 3k hands, which limit?
      Used to be NL20 but I now think he's at NL10?

      A minimum for a Sample size for me is 30k. Any less than that isn't going to be too accurate. As for your 3000 hands, I sometimes get through that in 2 days and I'll be up $15 on my first 1500 and down $20 on my 2nd, in such small amounts so much can happen, as long as it takes only 1 hand to lose a BI, then you'll need thousands of hand to have a sample ;)

      Just try not to be results orientated, play a session and look back at it and think "Did I play well?" "Am I happy with my Play" Sometimes you may have several losing days with 5000 hands played, but just because you're down is no reflection of your skill whatsoever.

      The best way to see how you're game is with such a small sample would be to use our Hand Evaluation Forums, post up some of the hands your unsure about :)
    • darkpenance0
      darkpenance0
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.10.2010 Posts: 156
      lol, wasn't it clear what stakes I play when I said

      played 10/20 on 888 but on WH I moved down to 5/10 to get a feel for the players
      Was that really so cryptic? :f_p:

      I'm up to 5000 hands now anyway and am about breaking even, think I'm down $4 overall, the bonus is keeping me in profit though.

      I'll see how it goes with another 5000 hands, if by 10,000 hands I'm still just about breaking even then I'll try and change my game.

      I've been running hot and cold, some sessions I've played very good poker and others I've played terrible. If I can just play good poker 80% of the time I should make some money. I'd say I'm on about 60% good poker right now, that is what happens when you take a break though, you get rusty.
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
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      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Hey Darkpenance0!!

      10k hans is still not that much though. I just moved to nl10 and in the first 15k hands I played I was down 11BI's, now I've played 18,5k hands and I'm up 3BI's. So in 3,5k hands I made up my losses and even made a slight profit.

      You'll start winning! Just give it some time.

      RasTweet
    • kruger32
      kruger32
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2011 Posts: 242
      Originally posted by darkpenance0
      lol, wasn't it clear what stakes I play when I said

      played 10/20 on 888 but on WH I moved down to 5/10 to get a feel for the players
      Was that really so cryptic? :f_p:
      I was just being sarcrastic.
      Look at it like this.

      BB Size * (BB / 100 Hands) * Number of Hands = Profit

      So,
      0.20 * (x/100) * 3K = $100
      x = 16.66

      16BB/100 Hands ?
      Beating the limits = 4BB/100 hands for most players.
      I just think that 16BB/100 might be a bit unrealistic.

      Just my 2c. Don't get mad.