8000 Hand Downswing, is this normal?

    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Ok, so I am down about 17BI over 8000 hands and am just wondering if this sorta thing is normal, as I only have what I started with, which is 30BI, left.

      Over the past week EVERYTHING that could go wrong has:

      My AA vs KK vs JJ, the villains Jack's take it
      My Set of 4's vs AK top pair vs 6 high flush draw, flush takes it
      AA vs KK again
      AK vs AJ
      AK vs A7s
      overpair vs middle pair
      Top two pair vs top pair 3 kicker, runner runner flush
      flopped straight busted by runner runner full house
      etc. just so much stuff like this, between 70 to 97% favourite to win but no. And I've lost around 80% of my coin flips too.

      The worst part is that often its with hands that should never be in there in the first place. I appreciate being outplayed and losing because it helps me improve my game, conversely it feels pretty damn sh*tty losing hard-earned profit to someone who plays 36s from the SB and calls on a flush draw with two players all-in in front.

      And when its not a bad beat its coolers such as
      hand is checked to river where a J gives my AK a straight, but villain full house.
      AA vs JTs, JT flopped a straight
      KK vs Q5, Q5 flops two pair
      T5s in BB for a limping hand, my flopped flush vs higher flopped flush.

      This week has just not been good for poker.

      Before this downswing I had almost doubled my bankroll but am now back to where I started, and worried about how long a downswing can last, as my bankroll is now quite at risk if things continue like this, and because I am at 0.01/0.02 cash tables I can't drop down limits.

      I know the tilt is not affecting my play because I'm doing SSS and its a pretty easy formula to follow even when you're pissed off, and before all these suckouts it was working very well. Just would like some info from an experienced player about how long this sort of thing can last.

      I'm hoping this sorta thing is normal and just seems insanely unlucky because I'm a poker noob. Maybe a break till Monday is best.
  • 60 replies
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      Yes
    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      +1 :(
    • BObamaJr
      BObamaJr
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.01.2012 Posts: 232
      Unfortunately this is normal. :(

      However, for you to win 25 BI you must also lose 17 BI. Losing is a necessity on the path to winning.
    • circoflax
      circoflax
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      Last month 20 BI under EV, still made a small profit. It seemed that everytime money was going in preflop I would lose. It happens, problem is it may affect the way you play, which is a thing to be avoided if possible.
    • bodutzu
      bodutzu
      Silver
      Joined: 17.02.2009 Posts: 93
      Are you playing on Stars?
    • Castle93
      Castle93
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,452
      Originally posted by bodutzu
      Are you playing on Stars?
      haha this is too good :f_biggrin: burst out laughing when i saw this
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Originally posted by bodutzu
      Are you playing on Stars?
      +1 :f_biggrin:
    • Glopslart
      Glopslart
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.05.2008 Posts: 331
      For this guy, yup, it looks absolutely normal. ROTFPMSL.
    • arthurbentley
      arthurbentley
      Silver
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 234
      Just keep playing your game and, hopefully, the tide will turn before you drown in sea of variance. You are obviously a decent player and not a donk. So view this downswing as something that all poker players go through. Including winning poker players!



      Variance is unavoidable, like night follows day, an upswing will be followed by a downswing. It takes some getting used to and it can certainly mess with your head. The first time I experienced it I thought I had lost my playing ability and it drove me nuts! Now I am a little wiser and more experienced with regards to variance, suckouts, donkouts and coolers. If you are getting your money in good, and often enough, you will be profitable in the long run.

      Should you go busto. It is not all doom and gloom. You can still build up your bankroll by multi-tabling the Pokerstrategy $100 freerolls each evening. I have won around $165 in seven months of playing these freerolls and I haven't played them everyday. I am hoping to have won about $250 by the end of the year. This will be my 'reserve' bankroll in case of emergency!

      Have you tried short stack strategy for cash games? You only need a bankroll of $12 to play $2NL. So you could utilise this strategy to build your roll back up.

    • vmarqui
      vmarqui
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.01.2010 Posts: 4,816
      no, never seen before
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Unfortunately these kinds of downswings are somewhat normal and you will have to learn to deal with them. Many winning players experience big swings more than once. Personally I have beaten NL50 and NL100 for an above average winrate over more than 3 million hands yet I have had multiple periods like this. Ive been set over setted 7/8 times in 2000 hands, had a whole month where ive lost money with sets and KK etc, its all part of the game and understanding and accepting variance should be one of your goals right now. Ive also broke even for 100k hands. It happens but I know without doubt that during each of these periods I could of had much better results.

      ALso, despite it feeling that no matter what you do you are just losing every pot I guarantee that at least 20% of these losses will be due to tilt, induced by the downswing. this is normal but this is something we do have control over and can fix. Also, aside from tilt, downswings also highlight our leaks much more than any other time, which is also something we can fix. In fact a downswing is actually a pretty good time in poker because its often when we learn the most about our weaknesses and improve our game the most.

      The good news is that you can improve your mental game and this will improve your overall win rate much more than any strategy. Now is a great time to do this also. There are many resources to help you do this and not only will this help your poker game but help your life too. Learning to understand and then control your emotions is a great skill to learn and is the biggest edge improvement any player at any stake can make IMO.

      Also as you gain experience you will learn to avoid building pots too large with hands that in reality, are pretty marginal often times, like holding aces on a JTx flop or a T high flush in a limped pot. Experience will reduce the severity of these swings too (plus increase you winrate in better times).

      The important thing to remember is that these periods (and for sometimes tens of thousands or hands) do happen, and will happen again but if you accept this, stay calm and remain confident in your strategy and ability then you will get through them and be a better player on the other side.



      [/QUOTE]
    • nefarious26
      nefarious26
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 413
      Originally posted by Hackett77
      Unfortunately these kinds of downswings are somewhat normal and you will have to learn to deal with them. Many winning players experience big swings more than once. Personally I have beaten NL50 and NL100 for an above average winrate over more than 3 million hands yet I have had multiple periods like this. Ive been set over setted 7/8 times in 2000 hands, had a whole month where ive lost money with sets and KK etc, its all part of the game and understanding and accepting variance should be one of your goals right now. Ive also broke even for 100k hands. It happens but I know without doubt that during each of these periods I could of had much better results.

      ALso, despite it feeling that no matter what you do you are just losing every pot I guarantee that at least 20% of these losses will be due to tilt, induced by the downswing. this is normal but this is something we do have control over and can fix. Also, aside from tilt, downswings also highlight our leaks much more than any other time, which is also something we can fix. In fact a downswing is actually a pretty good time in poker because its often when we learn the most about our weaknesses and improve our game the most.

      The good news is that you can improve your mental game and this will improve your overall win rate much more than any strategy. Now is a great time to do this also. There are many resources to help you do this and not only will this help your poker game but help your life too. Learning to understand and then control your emotions is a great skill to learn and is the biggest edge improvement any player at any stake can make IMO.

      Also as you gain experience you will learn to avoid building pots too large with hands that in reality, are pretty marginal often times, like holding aces on a JTx flop or a T high flush in a limped pot. Experience will reduce the severity of these swings too (plus increase you winrate in better times).

      The important thing to remember is that these periods (and for sometimes tens of thousands or hands) do happen, and will happen again but if you accept this, stay calm and remain confident in your strategy and ability then you will get through them and be a better player on the other side.



      [/quote]Great post
      Variance is so under estimated and not understood
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by Hackett77

      Also as you gain experience you will learn to avoid building pots too large with hands that in reality, are pretty marginal often times, like holding aces on a JTx flop or a T high flush in a limped pot. Experience will reduce the severity of these swings too (plus increase you winrate in better times).

      Thanks for the post. This point especially is pertinent but the problem is that I'm playing at 0.01/0.02, so really I have trouble respecting my opponents at this level when 75% of the time I will see top pair or OESD or Flush draw being overplayed against my AA overpair type hands. Ironically, I've also lost twice when I've had a set against AA but my opponent rivers an A.

      I would love to play at a limit where I can be convinced that there are logical thoughts going through my opponents head and lay down hands like AA overpair on the flop but unfortunately my BR is too small for that yet.

      :f_biggrin:

      And lol, bodutzu I am playing on Stars coincidentally! Shit's rigged! :f_biggrin:

      Gotta soldier on.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      nl2 is your building block for poker basics and value extraction.

      people often say "lol i hate these villains, their plays make no sense!" like if that was a bad thing :f_biggrin:
      if you pay enough attention you'll often notice some method to their madness also
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by Tomaloc
      nl2 is your building block for poker basics and value extraction.

      people often say "lol i hate these villains, their plays make no sense!" like if that was a bad thing :f_biggrin:
      if you pay enough attention you'll often notice some method to their madness also
      It is a good thing, but it sure doesn't feel like it when they suckout on you time after time lol. :f_biggrin:

      Also I've been playing Zoom (maybe this is the problem) so you can't really notice any method to the madness as you don't play against a certain player often enough. Although I did play a normal cash table today and was up 8bb/100, I found it much easier when you know what people are up to than random opponents in the dark, downside is much slower hands, but I do enjoy the analytical side of things that you don't get in zoom.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Being down after 8k hands is normal, being down 17bi @ NL2 isn't.

      Edit: Ah you play SSS, then it's not as unusual as it would be w BSS
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      i built my roll mostly on zoom, even though i started from NL5.

      even without really knowing what people are up to the classical advice "play tight and value bet" seems to be enough, i'd also add "be loose preflop and tight postflop" for zoom.
      there is absolutely really totally no need to get into leveling wars at all, you can just fold your way to success :f_biggrin:
    • nefarious26
      nefarious26
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 413
      Originally posted by Tomaloc
      i built my roll mostly on zoom, even though i started from NL5.

      even without really knowing what people are up to the classical advice "play tight and value bet" seems to be enough, i'd also add "be loose preflop and tight postflop" for zoom.
      there is absolutely really totally no need to get into leveling wars at all, you can just fold your way to success :f_biggrin:
      you play the 2 pair game on zoom?
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      you mean, only stack off with twopair or better? it's well doable at FR25- :f_biggrin: