[NL2-NL10] good fold? nl 10

    • funluke111
      funluke111
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 17
      $0.08/$0.16 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      BU = ($19.20)
      SB = ($16.88)
      BB (Hero) = ($14.59)
      UTG2 = ($17.12)
      MP1 = ($16.00)
      MP2 = ($8.93)
      MP3 = ($11.70)
      CO = ($16.00)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Ah, Ad.
      2 folds, MP2 calls $0.16, MP3 raises to $0.32, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.80, MP2 calls $0.64, MP3 calls $0.48.

      Flop: ($2.48) 9c, 4d, 3c (3 players)
      Hero bets $2.08, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $2.08.

      Turn: ($6.64) 8c (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 bets $8.82, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $6.64.

      At the time i only had 14 hands on MP2 and 9 on MP3 as PT3 wasnt working right. the stats i had where 79/00/55 and 78/11/31 which make sense from what i had seen from these 2 players. i had been waiting to play a hand against these 2 and i wasnt suprised to have both call my PR raise. i made quite a big cbet on the flop as i wanted to see where i was and to get maximum value out of one of these guys, as they would call with any draw.
      if the flush hadnt come in on the turn then i would of kept betting. i guess MP3`s preflop range was anything suited, connected, pairs or any Ace. After the flop i narrowed it down to 33,44,99, 9x, over pairs and flush cards. After he called my cbet i put him down to the flush draw as im sure he would of rasied any made hand on the flop..

      i think i made the right decision but im not the expert.
  • 3 replies
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      Preflop: I would raise a little bigger to something like 0.96 (3x). We obviosuly want to extract more $ from weaker hands and ideally get the money in preflop.

      Whilst opp's are pretty unknown to us it's pretty hard to put them on a range, but I think we can make a few assumptions about their preflop ranges, assuming that they are probably LP.

      MP2 open limps and cold calls a 3b so I might put him on something like:
      QQ-22,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

      MP3 min raises and calls a 3b so I would give him something like:
      QQ-22,ATs+,KJs+,ATo+,KJo+

      Flop: Since it is a 3b pot and given the above ranges I don't think a nearly pot sized bet is a neccessity, but If you have a read that your opponents will never fold any pair or draw then this might be good to maximize value.

      However, since we are up against somewhat unknowns (it seems) we might want to just bet between 1.65 and 1.85 mainly because protection is of slightly less importance than in a normal raised pot since there will usually be fewer combinations of drawing hands that might improve to the best hand on the turn.

      For example, would you expect villain to raise an MP limper and then call a 3b IP with something like 7 :spade: 8 :spade: and then flat a 3/4 pot sized bet on the flop. Unless he is an absolute drooler then probably not.

      What is more likely is to see something like K :spade: X :spade: or A :spade: X :spade: .

      If we held the A :spade: then we would have to worry slightly less as in 3b pots draws will comprise mainly of these types of hands.

      My plan on this board texture would probably to play bet/call Flop and bet/call Turn and hope he doesn't have a set. I would only play bet/fold if you have a concrete read that this opponent never plays TT-JJ and FD's this way.

      Turn: I would bet 1/2 - 2/3 pot and call a shove. I would assume villain is capable of playing OP's, draws and combo draws this way. In addition, once we bet we dont need much in the way of equity to make the call profitable.

      Let's say we only bet 1/2 pot on the turn ($3.32) and villain shoves for his remaining $8.82. The pot will be $13.28 and we have $5.50 to call.

      13.28/5.5 = 2.41:1

      (here's a quick way to calculate your required equity on a call **** veriz and other PS.members feel free to correct me if I'm wrong)

      2.41+1 = 3.41
      1/3.41 = 0.29 x 100 = 29% equity required to call

      now let's also assume that villain only calls the flop and raises our c-bet all-in on the turn with TP+ and good draws, we would still have to following equity:


      Board: 9:club: 4:diamond: 3:club:  8:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    52.41%  52.41%   0.00% { QQ-TT, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 4h4s, 4h4c, 4s4c, 3d3h, 3d3s, 3h3s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc }
      BB     47.59%  47.59%   0.00% { AdAh }


      Unless I knew more about the opp's here I'm not sure that I could find a fold on such a board texture.

      Hope it was a little bit of help, I would obviously wait for Veriz's evalutaion

      Cheers

      Muel294
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello funluke111,

      Add to full stack if you playing BSS. :)

      Preflop: Why do you raise so small? Vs min-raise use 4x raise which is kind of must! You are giving away good odds to set-mine vs you or Call with whatsoever hands.

      As played
      Postflop: Against not even a full stack I'd just Bet the turn and call it off while he could as well have worse PPs and not only strong made hands. Seems to be pretty loose.

      Best Regards.
    • funluke111
      funluke111
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 17
      Thanks muel294 and veriz,
      it was one of those do i call or not situations and im realizing i made the wrong decision... i guess the math said something else but i felt i was beat in the hand...
      i will try to keep all advice in mind for next time and i know there will be one..

      muel294 , thanks for the comments. very thorough and i appreciate the advice..

      Luke