[NL2-NL10] NL$5; AA tough turn vs. fish

    • inlovewithamsterdam
      Joined: 08.07.2009 Posts: 666
      CO looks a fish, 72/11 over 37 hands, af=1.3.
      So does SB (83/26 over 70+ hands)

      CO posts blinds, so don't get confused.

      Can I go broke on the turn?

      I calculated the situation as if I faced a shove from him on the turn after my $1 bet. Hence, it's a $7.01 pot and I have to pay $3.25. We therefore need 32% equity.

      I have used Ps equilator and it seems that If we give him this range


      it doesn't look like a profitable broke spot (we're getting ~31%).



      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      SB ($6.15)
      Hero ($8.58)
      CO ($5)
      BTN ($6.08)

      CO posts (SB) $0.02

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: A:heart:

      CO calls $0.03,
      fold, SB raises to $0.10, Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.25, SB calls $0.20

      FLOP ($0.90) 9:spade: 7:heart: 2:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, CO calls $0.45, SB folds

      TURN ($1.80) 9:spade: 7:heart: 2:club: 9:heart:

      Hero bets $1, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $7.83 (AI), CO calls $2.25 (AI)

      RIVER ($10.30) 9:spade: 7:heart: 2:club: 9:heart: 7:club:

      CO shows 8:diamond: 9:diamond: (Pre 23%, Flop 23.2%, Turn 95.5%) Hero shows A:spade: A:heart: (Pre 77%, Flop 76.8%, Turn 4.5%) CO wins $9.62
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello inlovewithamsterdam,

      Preflop: You should be raising bigger vs min-raise.

      As played
      Postflop: I'd Bet the flop bigger and Bet/Fold the turn rather than go broke. The 9 ain't good card for us either and I doubt that the guy is just min-raising with total air. Usually would assume that he would even play more passively with just PP.

      Best Regards.