[NL20-NL50] nl30 turn ship with tp

    • HitThe1Out
      HitThe1Out
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.01.2011 Posts: 5,059
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.30(BB) Replayer
      SB ($30.15)
      BB ($44.41)
      Hero ($30)
      UTG+1 ($56.48)
      CO ($34.45)
      BTN ($32.31)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: Q:club:

      Hero raises to $0.90, fold, CO calls $0.90, fold, SB calls $0.75, fold

      FLOP ($3) 4:heart: 9:heart: A:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $2.25, CO calls $2.25, SB raises to $6.30, Hero calls $4.05, CO folds

      TURN ($17.85) 4:heart: 9:heart: A:club: K:spade:

      SB bets $9, Hero raises to $22.80 (AI)

      CO nitreg
      SB 16 hands, vpip40/pfr33

      Valid plan to take non- turn and ship it there?
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello HitThe1Out,

      What made you think that he is Check/Raising loose on the flop in multiway pot? I would rather just Bet/Fold it than Bet/Call it without even having any blockers nor backdoor draw. I'd even say that just 3betting it on the flop is even better to protect your hand than give CO good odds to draw.

      If you are calling the flop then not much to comment on the turn.

      Best Regards.
    • HitThe1Out
      HitThe1Out
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.01.2011 Posts: 5,059
      Thanks. He had this time what I thought he would have, fd.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by HitThe1Out
      Thanks. He had this time what I thought he would have, fd.
      If you assume that then rather 3bet the flop and protect your hand while not having any backdoor FD yourself.
    • HitThe1Out
      HitThe1Out
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.01.2011 Posts: 5,059
      Originally posted by veriz
      Originally posted by HitThe1Out
      Thanks. He had this time what I thought he would have, fd.
      If you assume that then rather 3bet the flop and protect your hand while not having any backdoor FD yourself.
      But if we think villain has fd, for example 87, we can see that:

      EV(3b/c flop)=0,6071*0,95*63,45-26,85=$9,74, as there is no FE vs this villain for flop 3b and he's most of the time going to shove.


      Pöytä: 4:heart: 9:heart: A:club:
                 VO  Voitto   Tasan
      BU     60.71%  60.71%   0.00% { AdQc }
      SB     39.29%  39.29%   0.00% { 8h7h }


      EV(blank turn)=0,2*(-4,05)+0,8*(0,7955*0,95*63,45-22,8)=$19,31, as the villain is almost all the time betting the turn no matter what it is and going AI. Flush card only hit 20% of the time as we know 7 cards already assuming he has .


      Pöytä: 4:heart: 9:heart: A:club:  K:spade:
                 VO  Voitto   Tasan
      BU     79.55%  79.55%   0.00% { AdQc }
      SB     20.45%  20.45%   0.00% { 8h7h }



      Doesn't this work? If it's this way we can reduce variance and get a better EV, right? :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      You don't take into account at all that you have a player behind you who practically gets 4:1 and even better odds to draw for the flush. Nor of course isn't correct to put the opponent on only 1 hand, put on ranges and then see the equities.

      Plus you put practically the worst hand for him, why not for example A:hX? Which has decent equity vs you.
    • HitThe1Out
      HitThe1Out
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.01.2011 Posts: 5,059
      Mis-ignored CO.. But I guess I have to think a bit more these spots :)

      Thanks.