[NL2-NL10] 88 against squeeze should I fold?

    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $42.92 (171.7 bb)
      UTG+1: $28.36 (113.4 bb)
      UTG+2: $26.64 (106.6 bb)
      Hero (MP1): $10 (40 bb)
      MP2: $32.66 (130.6 bb)
      MP3: $8.06 (32.2 bb)
      CO: $37.20 (148.8 bb)
      BTN: $12.15 (48.6 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8 8
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.63, 2 folds, CO calls $0.63, BTN folds, SB raises to $3, BB folds, Hero raises to $10 and is all-in, CO folds, SB calls $7

      Flop: ($20.88) 5 J A (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      Turn: ($20.88) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($20.88) 3 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      $20.88 pot ($0.94 rake)
      Final Board: 5 J A 5 3
      Hero showed 8 8 and lost (-$10 net)
      SB showed Q Q and won $19.94 ($9.94 net)


      CO 74/3/35 SB11/9/184 and 3bet 4.0 and 16.7vs hero and 12.5 squeeze.
      I think it's marginal but can I shove?
  • 7 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Can you explain to me why you think it is marginal? What do you think SB's range of squeezing is? Do you think you have fold equity with your shove? In other words do you think he is ever bluffsqueezing here?

      What is your VPIP/PFR?

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      Stats is 14/12.
      I thought 12.7 squeeze range is a bit loose and against equity wise 12% range I have 47% equity.

      I think you said 88+ shove will be +ev.

      Any leaks?
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Gonchan
      Stats is 14/12.
      I thought 12.7 squeeze range is a bit loose and against equity wise 12% range I have 47% equity.
      So you play 14/12? You have 184 hands on this 11/9 nit, how many samples do you have on his squeeze? 12.5% seems 1 out of 8, do you think that is reliable?



      I think you said 88+ shove will be +ev.

      Any leaks?
      Yes what you said above is one of your leaks. if I say in Thread #1 that shoving 88 is +EV then it means with those variables (VPIP/pfr etc.etc.)

      Every situation is different ;)
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      Ok, with 184 hands I should mainly care about level one stats.
      He is nitty so he won't 3B or squeeze worse than my hand and at most coin flop.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Gonchan
      Ok, with 184 hands I should mainly care about level one stats.
      He is nitty so he won't 3B or squeeze worse than my hand and at most coin flop.
      No you should not care, you should just be looking at the samples you've got and assess how reliable it is

      Making it a coinflip is actually pretty good with the dead money so you shouldn't link ''coinflip'' with ''bad situations''

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,867
      If villain is loose 3better, I can do coinflop because of dead money, right?
      and I will care about hand size and connect it to level 2 stats or 3
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Gonchan
      If villain is loose 3better, I can do coinflop because of dead money, right?
      and I will care about hand size and connect it to level 2 stats or 3
      EV(profit) is made of 1) him Folding preflop & 2) Actual equity when the money goes in

      The formula is:
      EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – (eff.Stack*(1-Equity))]

      That's the answer I can give you