Sets on monotone boards

    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $25 (100 bb)
      Hero (CO): $25 (100 bb)
      BTN: $32.89 (131.6 bb)
      SB: $26.15 (104.6 bb)
      BB: $25.35 (101.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 5 5
      MP raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) 7 5 4 (2 players)
      MP bets $1.50, Hero ???

      I'm trying to analyze if its better to raise or directly shove.

      Lets say we directly shove, I've made three cases with different ranges that would shove and call. In the first 2 cases he assumes we have the same range as we put him on.

      Assumption: Completed flushes, sets and Acx flush draws will call.


      Board: 7:club: 5:club: 4:club:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 48.05% 47.39% 0.67% { 5d5h }
      MP3 51.95% 51.28% 0.67% { 77, 44, xcxc, Acx}


      If I shove and get called then I invest $24.25 to win $26.10 meaning I need 48.16% equity which I almost have. To call he would need 45.18% equity. He won't have this with flush draws so if he calls with Ax flush draws he's making a mistake. He'll be in a good shape to call with other sets though since I'm in the same spot with 48.05% equity and he could assume I'm shoving with the same range.

      This means a good opponent won't call with Ax flush draws either (we raise to protect against them and drive them away in the first place), so if he calls he'll call with made flushes or sets.

      Assumption: Completed flushes and sets will call

      Board: 7:club: 5:club: 4:club:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 34.35% 33.84% 0.50% { 5d5h }
      MP3 65.65% 65.15% 0.50% { 77, 44, xcxc }


      Sets are an underdog to made flushes meaning to a shove on these boards not profitable to call with sets either if he assumes I shove with sets or completed flushes only. He still needs 45.18% equity to call which he doesn't have. On the other hand when we shove against this range we need the same 48.16% equity which we don't have. So unprofitable to shove and call for both parties when holding sets.


      Assumption: Only completed flushes will call.


      Board: 7:club: 5:club: 4:club:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 32.26% 32.20% 0.06% { 5d5h }
      MP3 67.74% 67.68% 0.06% { xcxc }


      We still are in a tough spot with our set. If he assumes here that we shove with sets or completed flushes he'll still have higher equity. So this case is good for him and not for us.

      The only case good to shove is the first one where people will call a shove with flush draws, completed flushes and sets.

      Now looking at fold equity, with our last case we need a fold equity of 59.52% ((Bet * (1-equity)) / Bet + Pot). Which means to a shove he folds some crappy flushes and that could do the trick.

      So does this mean that even in the worst case its best to just shove over him in this situation?

      If we raise say to pot size we give him 2:1 odds meaning he'll need 33% equity to call which will happen in all the cases mentioned and we're screwed on the turn if he just calls and we don't hit a full house.
  • 7 replies
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Well shoving doesn't achieve much, i mean your shoving $24.25 to win $3.35, you can really only expect to be called if you are beat, sometimes hands like Ac-Ax & Kc-Kx may call.

      I think you should be raising with intentions of stacking off/shoving the turn to something like $5.50/$6.25. You want to be avoiding getting into any ugly spots on the turn if villain just calls however. So i think the goal in this spot here is to bet the minimum amount that commits you to the hand. By doing so you keep villains continuing range wider than if your just shoving the flop. So in hindsight $6 does seem a decent raise size as that leaves $18.35 left in your stack vs a pot of ATLEAST $13.85. If villain was to now shove on you you'd be calling off $18.35 to win $32.10 meaning you'd need aprox 36-37% equity to break even.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Originally posted by jonnyjm
      Well shoving doesn't achieve much, i mean your shoving $24.25 to win $3.35, you can really only expect to be called if you are beat, sometimes hands like Ac-Ax & Kc-Kx may call.

      I think you should be raising with intentions of stacking off/shoving the turn to something like $5.50/$6.25. You want to be avoiding getting into any ugly spots on the turn if villain just calls however. So i think the goal in this spot here is to bet the minimum amount that commits you to the hand. By doing so you keep villains continuing range wider than if your just shoving the flop. So in hindsight $6 does seem a decent raise size as that leaves $18.35 left in your stack vs a pot of ATLEAST $13.85. If villain was to now shove on you you'd be calling off $18.35 to win $32.10 meaning you'd need aprox 36-37% equity to break even.
      But the problem is I won't have 36-37% equity on the turn. If the opponent shoves turn he has to have a flush against which I have around 22% equity. I doubt many flush draws would shove the turn and not shove the flop when they could have when I raised them to say $6.

      If the flush draw completes and he shoves it makes sense he had a draw on the flop and again I'd have just 22% equity.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Also when I raise to say $6 I give him 2.08:1 odds meaning he needs 32.49% equity to call which he pretty much has in every scenario. Maybe some draws will fold to my raise, however it will be profitable for draws to shove now since the pot will be $9.35 if he shoves 22.75 and gets called he'll be shoving 22.75 to win a total of 50.35 meaning he'll have odds of 2.21:1 which is good enough for flush draws.

      When he shoves the pot will be $32.10 and I'll get odds 1.71:1, I'll forgo the fold equity I might have had had I shoved the flop.
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      No i was talking about him shoving over your $6 raise on the flop or you shoving on him on the turn if he called the flop. In this case you'll like nearly always have the right equity if he shoves over your $6 on the flop.

      I think you've just miss read or miss understood what i wrote.

      Scenario 1: You raise $6 on the flop villain shoves and you call off needing 36-37% equity.

      Scenario 2: You raise to $6 on the flop villain calls. Villain Checks turn, you shove with an SPR (Stack to Pot ratio) of 1.3ish.

      Scenario 3: You raise $6 on the flop villain calls. Villain shoves turn you call.

      Scenario 4: You raise $6 on the flop, villain folds.
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by maheepsangari
      Also when I raise to say $6 I give him 2.08:1 odds meaning he needs 32.49% equity to call which he pretty much has in every scenario....
      This is true, however this is the equity he needs assuming the hand goes to the river. As we are intending to shove the turn if called we are stopping that from occurring meaning he'll need to make his hand on the turn as he wont see the river. This gives us more favorable odds than it first appears. He also doesn't have implied odds from us as we are giving up if a 4th club happens to peel off. Our stack certainly isn't deep enough vs the call for him to have implieds through spiking a better set.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Originally posted by jonnyjm
      No i was talking about him shoving over your $6 raise on the flop or you shoving on him on the turn if he called the flop. In this case you'll like nearly always have the right equity if he shoves over your $6 on the flop.

      I think you've just miss read or miss understood what i wrote.

      Scenario 1: You raise $6 on the flop villain shoves and you call off needing 36-37% equity.

      Scenario 2: You raise to $6 on the flop villain calls. Villain Checks turn, you shove with an SPR (Stack to Pot ratio) of 1.3ish.

      Scenario 3: You raise $6 on the flop villain calls. Villain shoves turn you call.

      Scenario 4: You raise $6 on the flop, villain folds.
      Yeah I misunderstood, I thought you meant I raise to $6, he calls and shoves the Turn.

      Scenario 1: I get decent equity to call, true.

      Scenario 2: His draws will have less equity, his sets would also lose equity, if he has a flush already or hits one on the turn my equity decreases.

      Scenario 3: If I call then I'm getting into a -EV spot. Like I said he won't shove flush draws on the turn when he could have done that on the flop itself. I have around 22% equity against everything else.

      Scenario 4: Favorable again.

      The unfavorable scenarios are eliminated if I shove the flop directly which is why I asked the question. :)
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by maheepsangari
      Originally posted by jonnyjm
      No i was talking about him shoving over your $6 raise on the flop or you shoving on him on the turn if he called the flop. In this case you'll like nearly always have the right equity if he shoves over your $6 on the flop.

      I think you've just miss read or miss understood what i wrote.

      Scenario 1: You raise $6 on the flop villain shoves and you call off needing 36-37% equity.

      Scenario 2: You raise to $6 on the flop villain calls. Villain Checks turn, you shove with an SPR (Stack to Pot ratio) of 1.3ish.

      Scenario 3: You raise $6 on the flop villain calls. Villain shoves turn you call.

      Scenario 4: You raise $6 on the flop, villain folds.
      Yeah I misunderstood, I thought you meant I raise to $6, he calls and shoves the Turn.

      Scenario 1: I get decent equity to call, true.

      Scenario 2: His draws will have less equity, his sets would also lose equity, if he has a flush already or hits one on the turn my equity decreases.

      Scenario 3: If I call then I'm getting into a -EV spot. Like I said he won't shove flush draws on the turn when he could have done that on the flop itself. I have around 22% equity against everything else.

      Scenario 4: Favorable again.

      The unfavorable scenarios are eliminated if I shove the flop directly which is why I asked the question. :)
      Well then you need to calculate the % of his range that folds to a shove and % of his range that calls. and then what is the EV of this? and compare that to what i have suggested. You've done half of this, but what original range did you allocate?

      The other thing to consider with the shove though is you do polarize your range so might lose value vs a thinking player.