NL400 Rivered straight, bet or check

    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      Villain is a 18-14 nit (especially considering the sample is from 3 and 4 handed games), but with normal river AF (around 3). I have been opening a lot and have an aggressive image postflop as well. River is a real bless of course but should I bet or check here? And if I bet, how much?


      Merge - $4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: $186.00
      Hero (UTG): $600.50
      BTN: $1,227.10
      SB: $110.30

      SB posts SB $2.00, BB posts BB $4.00

      Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero has Q:heart: J:heart:

      Hero raises to $14.00, BTN calls $14.00, fold, BB calls $10.00

      Flop: ($44.00, 3 players) 8:spade: K:heart: T:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets $29.33, BTN calls $29.33, fold

      Turn: ($102.66, 2 players) 2:club:
      Hero bets $68.44, BTN calls $68.44

      River: ($239.54, 2 players) A:spade:
      Hero bets $179.65
  • 9 replies
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      He's never betting himself there IMO. You should bet for that reason, but it's unlikely he can call with many hands as well. I'd bet something around 1/2 pot or even less. We really can't bet big because we almost never can have bluffs here, he's not calling that. Also he might think that it's some sort of a blocking bet with Kx and turn something into a bluff.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      very interesting spot. I think c/jamming is the best. I'm afraid that he won't raise with sets even if you bet like 25$ but you stack those a lot once he bets. If you don't think he's bet/calling with sets here, then i think just potting it is best.
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      I think his range is too weak by the river so betting big is targeting a very narrow part of his range.

      I like betting 102 or something small to induce a bluff from Kx. Its hard for him to get to the river with Ax and vs our river sizing he will raise TT/88 if he has slow played.

      It sucks hes a nit but if I saw someone bet this sizing otr I would be thinking 'lol GL calling AQ' and stick it in their eye.
    • thejuggernaut
      thejuggernaut
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2012 Posts: 7
      Don't really understand the 3.5x open especially considering the short stacks in the blinds and the fact that we're effectively button here given the player with position on us is the closest thing possible to an empty seat.


      River:

      Even a nit will realize we are barreling the river A alot with our air and is unlikely to fold Kx to a reasonable sized bet. He is unlikely to bet these hands (which make up a large part of his range) for thin value. I can also see him folding some fairly strong hands to a c/r.


      Bet yourself. (slightly smaller than this is best I think)
    • TheLastNail
      TheLastNail
      Black
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 6,024
      opp has a very strong range on the R, he already has one starting PF coz of ur 3.5bb or and BB short (agro?) behind.

      - i dont think w no dyna he s calling u down w KQ or worse as u have a lot of Ax in ur perceived range.
      - i dont think the nit doublefloats AQ/AJ that much so i dont think he calls u here on R w that much if at all.
      - this makes his herocalling range on R rly weighted quite a lot to 2pair+

      Now the question for u is to judge whether he is able to b/c his sets/AK or he is good enough to fold them. If he ll fold in such case, then just pot/overbet, he s never folding a set that way. I think betting anything less than what u did is a big waste of value vs opp.
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      Originally posted by getdotacomWe really can't bet big because we almost never can have bluffs here.
      Not having many bluffs in a range does not mean betting small is correct. The opposite is the case, with a strong range you want to bet bigger. If he folds every time to a big bet you just bet big with your entire range and pick up the pot 100% of the time for the maximal EV a range can ever have.

      Originally posted by thejuggernaut
      Don't really understand the 3.5x open especially considering the short stacks in the blinds and the fact that we're effectively button here given the player with position on us is the closest thing possible to an empty seat.
      Yeah, preflop sizing seems far from ideal.


      I don't think a nit will turn 8x or Tx into a bluff when you check river as often as he should. I also don't think he will bet thinly for value, and if he does he will probably bet too small. While I think checking river here is certainly a good play, I just don't think it will work out vs a nitty guy. He is more likely to call KQ than bet AQ imo.

      I would size to target his 1pairs, standard 2/3 - 3/4 seems best to me.
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      @Internet

      If he folds every time to a big bet you just bet big with your entire range and pick up the pot 100% of the time for the maximal EV a range can ever have.


      This really makes no sense if we have a strong range. How can we get max EV if he always folds ? We want him to always call in order to get max EV. If we assume villain has only bluffcatchers, we have to bet accordingly to our bluff/value ratio to make his call b/e in theory. But as we can't have many bluffs we have to bet small. I think even if we bet 100% of our range, it's so strong that most of our bluffs beat his bluffcatchers, for that reason villain shouldn't be calling in this spot at all.
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      Originally posted by getdotacom@Internet

      If he folds every time to a big bet you just bet big with your entire range and pick up the pot 100% of the time for the maximal EV a range can ever have.


      This really makes no sense if we have a strong range. How can we get max EV if he always folds ? We want him to always call in order to get max EV. If we assume villain has only bluffcatchers, we have to bet accordingly to our bluff/value ratio to make his call b/e in theory. But as we can't have many bluffs we have to bet small. I think even if we bet 100% of our range, it's so strong that most of our bluffs beat his bluffcatchers, for that reason villain shouldn't be calling in this spot at all.
      Well think some more about it.

      If all his calls are break even, it doesn't matter whether he calls or folds. So we can assume he just folds. So our EV is just the pot for both our value hands and our bluffs - for our entire range.

      If we bet small enough (bluff infrequently enough) that he is able to call profitably, he will win some amount over $0 in EV from the pot, so our EV is less than the entire pot over our entire range (value+bluff)

      If we bet big enough (or dont have enough bluffs) he just folds all the time, again winning us the pot all the time, for an EV of the entire pot for our range.
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      I meant by this betting amount which villain can't call profitably, but it's close to b/e.