what are the odds?

  • 4 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Both AKs, both AKo, or one of each?
      If both AKo, are there any common suits?

      But, in general, in poker the way to look at it is, "If it is possible, it WILL happen."

      In my first week playing on Full Tilt, I was dealt AA in 3 successive hands.
      I wish I had saved the comment thread from the chat box.

      I thought online poker was SO easy.

      --VS
    • 1984ioc
      1984ioc
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2011 Posts: 712
      You need to indicate what suits were the cards you were holding and those of your opponents.Suited cards would obviously have a small advantage over non suited.Either way if this did happen to you within 1,000 hands then you can count yourself highly unlucky.
    • lynius
      lynius
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2011 Posts: 382
      Well the odds of an outright win is 3.06% / 3.07% .

      The chances of three consecutive wins are 3.06% * 3.06% * 3.06%

      = .00284%

      I don't know if my maths is advanced enough to do it over a 1000 hand sample or if i'd want to. Non the less, that is three consecutive defeats, that is assuming there is a fair split between suited and non suited confrontations.

      Remember, however, that variance has no memory - so you can still hit red on the roulette wheel 40 times in a row.

      (18/37)^40 = 0.000000000030397%

      or 100...

      (18/37)^100 = 5.09 x 10^32 (That's 30 0s after the percentage decimal point)
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      thanks all..

      they were unsuited both opponents all three times came 4 of their suit.

      I estimated 0.001%