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[NL2-NL10] AKo 062012

    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
      9 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($2.55) 51bb
      UTG+1 ($2.19) 44bb
      MP1 ($2.98) 60bb
      MP2 ($5.10) 102bb
      MP3 ($4) 80bb
      CO ($8.96) 179bb
      Hero (BTN) ($5) 100bb
      SB ($5.39) 108bb
      BB ($7.45) 149bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 9 players) Hero is BTN K:diamond: A:spade:
      UTG raises to $0.20, 5 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.40

      Flop: Q:diamond: 6:heart: 6:diamond: ($1.27, 2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $0.71, UTG goes all-in $1.95, Hero calls $1.24
  • 2 replies
    • rogervieri
      rogervieri
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2010 Posts: 1,034
      Hi Nip,

      Here is the way I see your hand:

      UTG: 22+, AJs+, KQs, QTs+, AQo+, KQo, QJo
      Hero A :spade: K :diamond:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 47.177 % 43.320 % 7.713 % 48.967 % 22+, AJs+, KQs, QTs+, AQo+, KQo, QJo
      Player 2: 52.823 % 48.967 % 7.713 % 43.320 % AsKd

      Against this wider range, preflop equity says we have a flip.

      flop: Q :diamond: 6 :heart: 6 :diamond:

      postflop equity is now:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 69.427 % 65.077 % 8.700 % 26.223 % 22+, AJs+, KQs, QTs+, AQo+, KQo, QJo
      Player 2: 30.573 % 26.223 % 8.700 % 65.077 % AsKd

      His check-raise would indicate a strong hand here, it looks more to me like a high-pp or at least an AQ kind of hand...I don't see him doing this strong move with any weaker holdings, basically, you only beat a bluf, and with only 2 over cards, best case scenario you have 6 outs.

      Pot odds are: $1.27 + $0.71 + $1.95 = $3.93
      you need to call for $1.24 to win $3.93, so that's about 3:1 or roughly 33% equity

      I guess you felt you were already pot comitted, but equity-wise, for the long term, I think it's better to fold in these kind of spots
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello nipbourne,

      You shouldn't be CBetting in first place on the flop cause you don't get a better hand to fold and nor you don't get value from anything. Just Check it behind and even if you Bet I'd still Bet/Fold it.

      Best Regards.