[NL2-NL10] NL10: AA vs. check raise

    • HughJazz82
      HughJazz82
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.04.2006 Posts: 1,227
      Hi,

      Ok to continue vs his check raise?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($3.88)
      BB ($8) [ 29 / 7 / 1.3 / 8 (40h) ]
      UTG ($9.63)
      Hero ($12.80)
      UTG+2 ($4.67)
      MP1 ($10.90)
      CO ($9.89)
      BTN ($5.11)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: A:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.35, BB calls $0.30

      FLOP ($1.20) 3:heart: 8:spade: 9:diamond:

      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB folds, BB calls $0.80

      TURN ($2.80) 3:heart: 8:spade: 9:diamond: 5:club:

      BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BB raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $11.60 (AI), BB calls $3.30 (AI)
  • 5 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,860
      well, you have to assume that he's stacking off with TT+.

      i think we can just fold it since i think his c/minr is really strong. we're likely going to see a set or 67
    • HughJazz82
      HughJazz82
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.04.2006 Posts: 1,227
      Board: 9d3h8s5c
      SB 56.74% 56.74% 0.00% { AdAh }
      BB 43.26% 43.26% 0.00% { QQ-88, 33, 76s }

      So if we assume he plays overpairs that way, we have to continue.
    • Vip3rNZ
      Vip3rNZ
      Silver
      Joined: 11.11.2011 Posts: 340
      I think if he can have 67s here, he can also have 89s he's play 89s this way if he's play a set this way i'd asume?
    • HughJazz82
      HughJazz82
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.04.2006 Posts: 1,227
      You're right, doesn't change much though:

      Board: 9d3h8s5c
      SB 54.41% 54.41% 0.00% { AdAh }
      BB 45.59% 45.59% 0.00% { QQ-88, 33, 98s, 76s }

      If we assume he plays only 50% of his overpairs that way, we get:

      Board: 9d3h8s5c
      SB 39.02% 39.02% 0.00% { AdAh }
      BB 60.98% 60.98% 0.00% { 99-88, 33, QdQh, QdQs, QdQc, JdJh, JdJs, JdJc, TdTh, TdTs, TdTc, 98s, 76s }

      I need (1,75+3,3)/16,35 = 30,9% EQ to get it in. So no mistake in that hand?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello HughJazz82,

      Nope, easy Bet/Fold on the turn. :) We don't beat much there.

      Best Regards.