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[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #40 24.06.12

    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PokerStrategists,

      as some of you may have heard that we have a homework in each of our No-Limit Hand Evaluation Coachings.

      Here is the homework for the coaching from June 24th, please note:

      • Everybody is invited to share his thoughts here regardless if you joined the last coaching or not.
      • Whoever is active in the homework threads can get a free database analysis by us which helps you to improve your game.

      Find the hand below waiting for you opinions and analysis posted in this thread. Furthermore do not forget to join our next coaching on Sunday, July 1st at 1 PM GMT.

      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players

      MP2: $9.18 - VPIP: 34, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1.4, Hands: 32
      Hero (CO): $11.56 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 5.8, Hands: 60644
      BTN: $2.71 - VPIP: 42, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 31
      SB: $7.82 - VPIP: 63, PFR: 41, 3B: 0, AF: 3.6, fold to cbet: 33, WTSD: 13, W$SD: 33, raise cbet: 0 (12), river AF: 7.0, river AFq: 72, Hands: 116
      BB: $10.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 26
      UTG: $4.45 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 102
      UTG+1: $10.00 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 9, 3B: 2, AF: 1.1, Hands: 130
      MP1: $4.31 - VPIP: 8, PFR: 8, 3B: 5, AF: Infinity, Hands: 50

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with Q :club: K :club:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, 1 fold, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.80) T :heart: J :club: T :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.50

      Turn: ($1.80) 5 :diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($1.80) A :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $2.70, SB raises to $6.97 :f_o: Hero?

      What is the best on the turn?
  • 4 replies
    • SneakyhanD
      Joined: 29.10.2007 Posts: 700
      In my opinion:

      Semi bluff turn - he is not likely to raise turn, I don't think he folds a lot of hands. I think we should bet 1/2 of the pot . and re-evaluate on the river (assuming we are yet to see the river).

      As played:
      Given the river card we complete our straight.

      River is a clear 4bet shove (villain still has like half dollar left :D )

      Calling/4betting river is +EV.

      In the river I put villain on this range:

      Does this range makes sense ? I exclude AA-KK because would he really just call flop and c/x turn ?

      Given that range, we are favorites; 57% vs 43%

      estimating there are approx 12$ in the pot, we need to call/raise about 4$ -we make around 5$ EV on avg.

      have I gone too far and FAR to wrong with my estimations veriz ?
    • holmeboy
      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      Check behind turn. We have very little fold equity and still only have a draw so our pot equity is small. So when we miss we save money. And he's aggressive on the river so he'll donk out a lot and pay us when we realise our equity.

      His donk raise sucks... Because his wtsd is so low. But W$SD is low so he's capable of making this play with Ax, and non fh Tx hands so call imo - we're good enough of the time here.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Preflop and flop I completely agree.

      Turn - I think if his fold to cbet on flop is so low over good sample, then it should be posible to bet the turn, because on flop he could call very ligt, with hands like A high and PPs. If he has PP, we have decent equiety, because of overcards and OESD.

      Easy ship on river, he could now have catched Ax including AJ, maybe even A5, plus he might have slowplayed Tx, plus his stack is small and we have almost nuts.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      2nd barreling the turn wouldn't achieve much here cause we rarely going to have much fold equity. Therefore I'd also Check behind on the turn.

      Although what I'd do on the river is that I'd just shove cause I see him having enough of Ax/Tx hands which are capable of calling us down.

      Best Regards.