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[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH A6 two pair vs pot on river

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($16.90)
      Hero ($106)
      UTG ($26.25)
      CO ($24.74)
      BTN ($9.75)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: 6:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.60, SB calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.20) A:spade: 9:club: Q:heart:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB calls $0.70

      TURN ($2.60) A:spade: 9:club: Q:heart: 6:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $1.90, SB calls $1.90

      RIVER ($6.40) A:spade: 9:club: Q:heart: 6:club: J:spade:

      SB bets $6.40, Hero calls $6.40

      63/14/1.9. fp;d tp cnet 50, agr freq river 44%, 147 hands
      I have notes that he pots river with busted gutshot, but I am not sure if I had them at this moment when I played.

      KT, 8T hits, AJ hits.

      But I beat 9J, QJ, proablby thats it. So maybe its a fold.
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SPeedFANat1c,

      Don't really see much what we beat on the river cause some draws even got there and also better 2pairs/sets even around.

      Best Regards.
    • mrkaktus
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 69
      I might be wrong but against such a fish with some aggression (44% afq is no little imo) it is never fold. Against this player I am calling all day long. I mean this fish is imo completely capable of doing this w/ Ax which does not have 2 pairs, he might have 96 in his range too, even J6 (I know it is hard for him to get over the flop w/ just Jhi but I see it very often - fish calling w pure pure air on the flop and continuing somehow improved on turn)

      Imo his range here can be:

      What we beat (his "value" betting range)

      1. 96s (and even some 96o sometimes) (lets say 4 combos 3 for suited 1 for offsuit)
      2. Q9 (definitely) (9 combos)
      3. QJ (9 combos)
      4. Q6 (3 combos)
      5. J9 (9 combos)
      6. some weird J6s (lets say 1 combo)
      7. Ax (lets say 10 combos but I think it might be much more)

      45 combos

      What beats us (if we assume that he does not raise even AA, QQ, JJ but imo some of this range he would probably raise as he is 63/14 so he has some raising range )

      1. AA (1 combo)
      2. A9 (3 combos)
      3. AQ (3 comboc)
      4. AJ (3 combos)
      5. T8 (16 combos)
      6. KT (16 combos)
      7. QQ (3 combos)
      8. 99 (3 combos)
      9. 66 (1combo)
      10. JJ (3 combos)

      total of 52 combos

      as it is PSB we need to be good in 33% of cases for be call and we are good at 46%, even if we discard some 96/J6hands from villains range and do not give him any "wtf" kind of range like lets say 67s, 33, TJ which he just call and bet for no obvious reason (but fish definitely do that some time) we are so ahead that fold is imo completely criminal.

      EDIT: "repaired" one missclick
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      147 hands and AFq on river? It's just a leak if you take a look into that kind of stat for so small sample.