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[NL20-NL50] River check behind?

    • maheepsangari
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $24.10 (150.6 bb)
      UTG: $23.18 (144.9 bb)
      MP: $18.50 (115.6 bb)
      Hero (CO): $17.95 (112.2 bb) 22/18/5.0/8.7/33/78
      BTN: $7.42 (46.4 bb)
      SB: $10.68 (66.8 bb) 37/11/0.7/3.7/13/67

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q A
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, BTN folds, SB calls $0.40, BB folds

      Flop: ($1.12) A 3 8 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB calls $0.80

      Turn: ($2.72) A (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.76, SB calls $1.76

      River: ($6.24) 7 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks
  • 3 replies
    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      Bet/fold river for value.
    • maheepsangari
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I get paid by weaker Ax hands and lose to completed flushes. The good thing is that I'm blocking Q :spade: so K :spade: and J :spade: would definitely be in his flush draw calling range. Against Ax,Ksxs,Jsxs

      Board: A:spade: 3:spade: 8:club:  A:diamond:  7:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    50.00%  47.46%   2.54% { AcQs }
      MP3    50.00%  47.46%   2.54% { A2s+, QsKs, JsKs, TsKs, 9sKs, 8sKs, 7sKs, 6sKs, 5sKs, 4sKs, 3sKs, 2sKs, JsQs, TsJs, 9sJs, 8sJs, 7sJs, 6sJs, 5sJs, 4sJs, 3sJs, 2sJs, A2o+ }

      If I add more flush draw combos I have lower equity.

      My point is won't there always be more flush combos than Ax combos in his range? So is it really worth betting?
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello maheepsangari,

      I'd most likely bet the flop & turn even bigger cause I assume from such a guy there is tons of value. He will have a lot of worse Ax hands. And as played on the river I'd still Bet/Fold it as well like $3, should be still in long run be profitable. He might even sometimes end up with just worse PPs even. :D

      Best Regards.