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Charts for pushing vs 1 opponent

    • Amirapuato
      Joined: 08.07.2007 Posts: 1,105
      I just created some charts to help me with my push - check/fold decisions while playing SSS, but I think it can be used with any strategy.

      Link: Clicky

      First, I made some assumptions:
      1) You know to count your outs (or calculate your equity).
      2) You are playing either the flop or the turn.
      3) Nobody has betted before you in the current street.
      4) The rake is 5% of the pot.

      To use the chart you have to do following:
      1) Count your outs / Calculate your equity.
      2) Make an assumption about the opponent's FE (fold equity), if you don't know, stay on the safe side and assume 0 %.
      3) Look up the number on the intersection of your outs (equity) and opponent's FE.
      4) Calculate your (Stack/Pot) ratio.

      Then, it's easy... If the number on the chart is bigger than your ratio, it's always +EV to push. And following things will increase your pushes +EV:
      1) You underestimated the opponent's FE, or your own outs.
      2) There is dead money in the pot (somebody betted before you).
      3) More than 1 opponent calls your push.

      === Example for the matematically oriented ===

      Your Remaining Stack: $ 5.00

      Pot: $ 4.00

      Outs on the flop: 9 (nut-flush draw) --> Equity = 35%

      Estimated opponent's FE: 10%

      Your Stack/Pot ratio is 5/4 = 1.25
      If you look up in the chart, 9 outs + 10% FE, gives us a 1.33 ratio.

      As the ratio from the chart is bigger than your ratio, it's +EV to push.

      Now, there are 3 options:
      a) Your opponent folds (10 %).
      b) Your opponent calls your push, and you win (90% * 35% = 31.5 %).
      c) Your opponent calls your push, and you lose (90% * 65% = 58.5 %).

      The EV for each of them:
      a) You win the current pot - rake. ($ 4.00 * 0.95 = $ 3.80)
      b) You win the showdown pot - rake - push. ($ 14.00 * 0.95 - $ 5.00 = $8.30)
      c) You lose the hand. (-$ 5.00)

      Now the total EV for the move:
      (10% * $3.80 + 31.5% * $8.30 - 58.5% * $5.00) = + $0.07 (not the big deal, but still +EV)

      === ===

      Please feel free to comment. :)
  • 2 replies
    • JovanS
      Joined: 16.01.2008 Posts: 19
      If you play SSS as explained in articles, than you play only in 25BB to 15BB stack range so you dont need to calculate outs and odds after pot almost never,becouse if you are a pre flop raiser and play as explained in articles you will be +EV. I think that only in a case of freeplay when you flop a big draw against multiple oponents you shoud count outs/odds.
      Theory about pushing against one(or few) oponent from SB, BU, and CO is generaly explained by Sklansky/Chubukov numbers and ranges, which determines biggest stack for every hand with wich you should push from these positions. These pushes are EV+ even if our oponent sees our cards and plays perfectly. More about these ranges you can read in gold article on this site , but you can find original article in Sklansky/Miller book Theory of poker.
    • Amirapuato
      Joined: 08.07.2007 Posts: 1,105
      Yes, I know, if you raised preflop, there is not much use in this new charts. :)

      It's intended for those freeplay situations, and also if you limped with ATs-A2s, KJs-KTs, QJs-QTs or JTs from late position or the SB. And obviously, you need a draw to count some outs.

      Sklansky/Chubukov pushes are for before the flop, and normally only if you are specially Short Stacked (less than 15 BB), and your hands have bad postflop playability.

      Checking my HHs, I see 'quite' some situations where I could have taken a better decision using this charts (about 1 or 2 every 100 hands), so I created them for my personal use... But I though, if someone finds them useful, lets give them to him too. :D