[NL2-NL10] NL10 44 bottom set on 456 monochrome

    • member001
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 288
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

      MP1: $10 (100 bb) 10/10(31h)
      MP2: $10.91 (109.1 bb)
      MP3: $5.62 (56.2 bb)
      CO: $10.42 (104.2 bb)
      BTN: $5.20 (52 bb)
      SB: $11.27 (112.7 bb)
      Hero (BB): $21.21 (212.1 bb)
      UTG+1: $12.47 (124.7 bb)
      UTG+2: $7.45 (74.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 4 4
      2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.30, MP2 calls $0.30, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.95) 4 5 6 (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.80, MP1 raises to $2.40, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $9.70 ?

      , MP1 folds

      Results: $5.75 pot ($0.26 rake)
      Final Board: 4 5 6
      MP1 mucked and lost (-$2.70 net)
      MP2 mucked and lost (-$0.30 net)
      Hero mucked 4 4 and won $5.49 ($2.79 net)

      Is this ok? Small sample but he's tight 10/10 so I think his raise is protecting an overpair much more often than a better set.
  • 4 replies
    • holmeboy
      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      I'd play it the same way thinking last thing I want to see is another heart/3/7. Interested to hear what Veriz will say about the hand...
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,014
      dunno why he couldn't still have many 55-66, 10/10 guys still open these hands, specially from mp. not a huge sample either
      we're only going to see more overpairs because there are more overpair combos overall...

      that said it kinda sucks but the only worse hand i see calling your shove on this flop is AA... maybe down to QQ, not sure
      i think 3, 7 are not dangerous cards, they suck because they are action killers :f_biggrin:
      what would really suck for our relative hand strength would be a heart. :f_mad:

      as much as it seems sucky maybe calling is even an option.
      if he has an overpair protecting he'll probably still bet any random blanks, so we can c/shove over. problem is if turn is not a random blank, even if we may still likely have the best hand like on a 3, 7 villain probably will not bet :f_biggrin: so probably it may be better to just close the action and hope villain overplays but...
    • member001
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 288
      Thanks Tomaloc, that all makes sense. Agree completely about 3, 7 being action killers but not really scare cards for us.

      When he raises us on the flop, I guess he has:
      6 combos of 55-66 that crush us
      18 combos of QQ-AA trying to protect
      (I don't think he has a made flush, because it would be a nut flush and I doubt he would raise it like this.)

      When we shove, he only calls with the better sets and a small number of overpair with one heart hands that we are ahead of but not crushing.

      - so it looks like we are ahead of his raising range, but behind his much narrower raise/broke range. Maybe this means it is not such a good idea to shove. Feels like I am doing it in order to make the hand easier to play, not necessarily because it is the most +EV line.

      What if we just call in the hope of getting another street of value from him (on 80% of turn cards) and accept that we will fold if he shows aggression the 20% of times a arrives?
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello member001,

      Seems to be fine, I would have played the same way. He could easily have also just overpairs there or even just nutFD or whatsoever which he went crazy. Nice hand!

      Best Regards.