[NL20-NL50] 22 NL25 SH - deepstacked set vs. 1-colour flop

    • Eclipt
      Eclipt
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2007 Posts: 755
      Full Tilt Poker
      No Limit Holdem Ring game
      Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
      6 players
      Converter

      Stack sizes:
      UTG: $46
      UTG+1: $26.40
      CO: $25.20
      Button: $25.40
      SB: $62.15
      Hero: $49.70

      Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 2 2
      UTG raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

      Flop: K J 2 ($3, 4 players)
      SB bets $3, Hero raises to $9, 2 folds, SB raises to $30, Hero raises all-in $48.95, SB calls.

      Turn: A ($100.9, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $100.9)


      River: 9 ($100.9, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $100.9)


      Results:
      Final pot: $100.9

      Fold?
  • 5 replies
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      nope, nh
    • Eclipt
      Eclipt
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2007 Posts: 755
      Even deep stacked? With 100BB its easy all-in, but not with 200BB. What worse hands are moving all-in here?
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      Yes, its very close given you have 200BB and the board is ugly but I still call. The point is that Villain will never go broke with a weak hand here. He either has a Draw + Pair or gutshot or he has a higher set or he has the made flush. Against this range you are dog.

      Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

      47,520 games 0.001 secs 47,520,000 games/sec

      Board: Kc Jc 2c
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 58.270% 57.42% 00.85% 27285 405.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KK, JJ, AcQc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }
      Hand 1: 41.730% 40.88% 00.85% 19425 405.00 { 22 }

      Now, if we have 41.7% equity, we own 42.11$. You have 39.95$ left --> its a "crying shove". Note that our play is a high variance play, but we earn 2$ by shoving vs. folding. Furthermore, there are some donkeys that may go broke lighter than the given range.
    • Eclipt
      Eclipt
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2007 Posts: 755
      AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KK, JJ, AcQc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs
      Thats UTG`s range and against UTG it is easy, easy shove (BTW I`d add any A-A and A-K to his range, not just ones with ). But it is SB, not UTG who is moving in. His range hits this flop way more often than UTG as he might have suited connectors and A-xs (+ maybe J-J).

      It really looks like protection raise with low flush. Villain seems reasonable and I think he wouldn`t slowplay in this spot.
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      Typically its bad to go broke for 200BB with AA w/o a FD. However, I agree that some players will go with that hand. I prefer evaluating the tight range and if its a call/shove there, its an even easier call/shove against a looser range.