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[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - bluffraise in 3b pot.

    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      NAME/ 389 hands
      20/17/34/78/91 vpip/pfr/steal/foldtosteal/foldtoresteal
      5.1/86/5.6/15 3bet/foldto3bet/AF/wtsd
      89/50/89/0 cbet/foldtocbet/cbetturn/foldtocbetturn

      More stats:
      VS steal in BB: fold=77%, call=10%, resteal=13%
      Foldcbettoraise = 1/1 (100%)

      Villain is a good villain as you can see.

      Preflop standard imo with these stacksizes.

      Now the important part of the hand happens on the flop. Is this a good board to raise him?

      My thoughts at the time were he was going to fold QQ+ without :club: to my raise cause I can easily rep sets this way and he has a very low wtsd.

      With is superhigh cbet% I also think he'll cbet all AK combo's and he's probably going to fold each combo without A :club: .

      Is the 2 :spade: J :club: 9 :club: much better to bluffraise on?

      Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1811876
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BTN): $36.23
      SB: $11.62
      BB: $54.00
      UTG: $25.00
      MP: $24.65
      CO: $50.69

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 5 :spade: 5 :heart:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.62, 1 fold, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.88

      Flop: ($5.10) 2 :club: J :club: 9 :club: (2 players)
      BB bets $3.25, Hero raises to $10
  • 3 replies
    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      Being a bit deeper preflop the call is good I think, especially if you're willing to make some moves in good spots to make it profitable.

      We can reasonably assume, that his 13% 3bet range is polarized, so it could look something like:

      If we also assume, that he's cbetting this board close to 100% (?), than the math is, our bluff has to work 55% of the time without us having equity (which we dont have).
      On the flop his range contains 145 combos, so if he continues with less than 66 combos, than the move is profitable in vacuum.

      If we assume that BB will continue with sets, flushes, A:cX and TP/overpairs (I think we are asking too much from him if we want to fold out overpairs), than we narrow down his range to 56 combos:

      So I think it's profitable, but it depends a lot if he's cbetting this board with all his range, or he's capable of check/folding if he doesnt have equity.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      You can take a lot better board to bluffraise and you don´t have to make it 10$ to force out hands. You can get fold his air if you raise 7$ and that also looks a lot stronger than 10$ raise, since you should not raise that big with made flushes (maybe sets).
      He would likely not fold his AK if he has A or K high flushdraw and may call with AQ (or shove all his A high flushdraws). He may fold his overpairs, but since you are likely also raising your A high flushdraws then they might see one card to then make their opinion.

      In the end not bad spot to bluff is player is scared money, but without any equity I would just let it go or make a lot smaller raise

      best regards,
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Thanks. Makes sense