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[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #42 08.07.12

    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PokerStrategists,

      as some of you may have heard that we have a homework in each of our No-Limit Hand Evaluation Coachings.

      Here is the homework for the coaching from July 8th, please note:

      • Everybody is invited to share his thoughts here regardless if you joined the last coaching or not.
      • Whoever is active in the homework threads can get a free database analysis by us which helps you to improve your game.

      Find the hand below waiting for you opinions and analysis posted in this thread. Furthermore do not forget to join our next coaching on Sunday, July 15th at 1 PM GMT.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($4.95)
      BB ($4.06)
      UTG ($9.95)
      CO ($4)
      BTN ($3.61)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: K:diamond:

      UTG raises to $0.12, CO calls $0.12, BTN calls $0.12, Hero calls $0.10, fold

      FLOP ($0.52) 8:spade: J:club: K:club:

      Hero bets $0.40, UTG calls $0.40, CO raises to $1.57, BTN folds, Hero raises to $4.83 (AI), UTG folds, CO calls $2.31 (AI)

      TURN ($8.68) 8:spade: J:club: K:club: 9:club:

      RIVER ($8.68) 8:spade: J:club: K:club: 9:club: 5:heart:

      CO shows 8:club: 8:heart: (Pre 51%, Flop 83.2%, Turn 90.9%)Hero shows J:diamond: K:diamond: (Pre 49%, Flop 16.8%, Turn 9.1%)CO wins $8.25

      At the time I didn’t properly put him on a range which is a big leak in my game. If I did I would have reasoned that CO is 30/15/4.7 over 130 hands which is pretty TAG and even pretty nitty. So his range has many small pocket pairs in it and the only hand that makes sense is therefore a set of 8 here given his play. I felt like he could have many draws here which is why I got it in but I don’t think this is right anymore. Is this a fold on the flop?
  • 11 replies
    • druidulix
      Joined: 30.04.2011 Posts: 291
      At first I assume that UTG never has anything (though he will of course wake up with JJ, KK or 88 once in a while)

      My second assumption is that we have no fold equity versus CO (he is kinda committed after his raise)

      Because of this, I guess that the first EV calculation gets simple; how much equity do we need?
      We bet (effective) $ 3.88 to win, after he calls, $ 5.2
      So we need about 43 % equity to break even.

      With 30 % VPIP I wouldn´t call him a nit, and if he just has 15 % PFR I dont think he's a normal TAG either, seems a bit fishy to me. But I have been wrong before ( :f_cry: ) and can't say that I'm especially good at interpreting stats.

      Versus a range with only monsterdraws and 2 pair+ (I included another 2 pair hand, which I think he deffinitely can have from time to time) You have about 47 % equity, and can therefore shove it in.

      Bräda: K :club: J :club: 8 :spade:

      Equity Vinst Oavgjort
      MP2 46.93% 28.95% 17.98% { KdJd }
      MP3 53.07% 35.10% 17.98% { 88, KJs, J8s, QcTc, Tc9c, KJo, AcQs }
    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      I think folding is our best option here.

      This is the widest range I can put CO on:

      Board: KCJC8S
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    44.35%  30.23%  14.12% { KdJd }
      MP3    55.65%  41.52%  14.12% { JJ, 88, KJs, J8s, AcQc, AcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Tc9c, KJo }

      But given that this is a family pot I would expect it to have less draws in it, as it really does not make sense to raise even very good draws in a multiway pot like this vs a very strong like Hero's.

      Also I think Hero's reading into stats are not the best. 30/15 means a pretty loose player preflop which combined with his very high AF transforms him into a bad aggressive opponent most likely. Even given this I'm still confident that villain is not going to raise many draws 4 way ==> our equity decreases ==> we should fold.
    • BadeaCelRau
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      I wouldn't label the opponent as a nitty tag, rather an aggro fish.
      We are doing a lot better when not counting the monster draws, because they are so monstrous :D .

      Board: 8:spade: J:club: K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    58.16%  41.67%  16.49% { KdJd }
      MP3    41.84%  25.35%  16.49% { 88, KhJh, KsJs, Jh8h, KhJs, KsJh, Jh8d, Jh8c, Js8d, Js8c }

      That's because we are only fearing 88, 3 combos and maybe, just maybe, another combo of JJ :) .

      Given that he probably wouldn't take his chances with a draw, I think I'd go with the hand.
    • zoty79
      Joined: 31.03.2010 Posts: 1,325
      i think he is a aggro Fish.

      i give hin following Range on the flop after he raises!

      Board: 8:spade: K:club: J:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    69.68%  66.78%   2.91% { KdJd }
      MP3    30.32%  27.41%   2.91% { JJ+, 88, AKs, KTs+, AcQc, AcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Qc9c, Ac8c, Tc8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AKo, KJo+, QTo+ }

      A 2 Pair ist often not strong enough against two opponants. But Viallin is an aggro lose player. So he could easy have the given range.
      We ne 42,73% Euity and we have 69,68% . For me it is a call!
    • gadget51
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Well I'll probably talk rubbish as usual, but here goes.

      UTG raise - doesn't appear to be considered much in analysis.

      CO calls - 30/15 nitty (lol)

      BU calls

      Hero (sb) calls - why? I gotz odds I calls! [It's not called jack/king off for nothing.]

      BB - squeeze? Not considered by hero?

      If hero feels call preflop is good, can he then donk/fold? Seems a bit meh to me.

      Also, we are considering going broke v loose guy but seem to be forgetting utg called our donkbet and is still in.
      How would hero feel getting it in 3 way here?

      Personally I would be confident I was up against at least one set and/or a monster draw.

      Not happy with that and not knowing what utg may do, the situation sucks and I don't know where I am in the hand, ergo...

      ...I fold and find a more confident spot.
    • martins1337
      Joined: 07.06.2009 Posts: 273
      PF I think it's fine, but if you flop TP, it's hard to get value.
      flop: donk is ok, UTG won't cbet much and once he calls we are ahead of his range ( don't think he would call sets here). once aggro CO raises, i think he's range is wide enough for me to go all in. sometimes fish makes crazy, unthinkable moves.
    • KillerFishes
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      PF fold, I don't think that player who thinks that 30/15 is a nitty can play this hand profitably on SB. We're not even having nutFlush ... => it's gonna be troublesome anyway....

      Flop - donking is totally fine, we protect our hand. After CO's raise only hands that beat us are - JJ (1), 88 (3) ... Assuming KK 3bets pre...

      => easy allin....
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      Preflop: It's kinda marginal spot cause often times people tend to start to overplay their hands and not only pairs but maybe even draws. Which also brings to the spot where we most likely wont have very good implied odds, therefore you might even want to fold your hand over calling if you don't have good postflop awareness.

      Nor the opponent of course ain't a nit, nitty opponent has different stats, for example 16/14 or something similar. He he is rather a loose opponent who tends to play more hands by just calling and now raising.

      As played
      Postflop: We have to pay a closer attention here how much we have invested into the pot. Which actually is very small amount. Is it really worth to take the risk, it's obvious that the variance here is going to be huge. But now lets take a look if it is? We would need ~42% equity just for break-even Call, which means even for profit we would of course need higher and something like 45% would be solid. Taken into account he could have something similar like this:

      Board: 8:spade: J:club: K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    54.61%  45.66%   8.95% { JJ, 88, KJs, K8s, J8s, AcQc, AcTc, QcTc }
      UTG+1  45.40%  36.45%   8.95% { KdJd }

      we do not get the equity, cause we are splitting with most of the KJ hands and our win equity isn't going to be that good. This range might be even optimistic cause we can never be sure if he even raises with draws.

      Just cause his AF is 4.5 doesn't mean that he is aggressive, the sample is way too small to take a look into AF here. So for conclusion I would be Bet/Folding the flop.

      Best Regards.
    • foulkezboyz
      Joined: 28.03.2011 Posts: 161
      i think this one is probably a preflop fold, but when it comes down to the post flop play, i think you are good to just try to get it in with the stuff you have, i won't bother reposting ev charts because people have already done that, but from what i have learnt about poker so far and about micros especially, it would probably be best to avoid calling such a raise pf, as it is a reasonably difficult hand to play post flop and you are against multiple opponents, rather just wait for a better spot and make easier money.

      Your friendly neighbourhood fish, Foulkez :s_evil:
    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Why does everybody say the call preflop is marginal? With 3 guys already in the pot, 2.5 BB more to be put in I deff think we can play for 2p+ with our hand.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by DeMarcohsp
      Why does everybody say the call preflop is marginal? With 3 guys already in the pot, 2.5 BB more to be put in I deff think we can play for 2p+ with our hand.
      Cause I would assume NL4 players would very often start to overplay their hands. :) The pot will be very big and then kinda feel committed with their pair.