Long term queastion

    • Stevie8
      Stevie8
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.06.2012 Posts: 152
      Just a short question. If I lose on average 8 out of 10 coinflips for a period of time (whether cash or SNG) and my bankroll keeps revolving around the same number, does it mean that on the long term I'm gonna run good ?
  • 16 replies
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,596
      Hey Stevie8,

      We can't give you a Yes or No answer on this one.

      Just because your winning/losing flips (no matter how many there is), won't determine if your going to run good or not in the long term.

      If your losing 8 out of 10 coin flips for a period of time then I would hate to be in your shoes hehe. Sounds like your going through a rough time if your losing that many.

      But seriously, all you can do is continuously get your hand in ahead at the time of the "flip".

      We have an ICM trainer here at PokerStrategy.com. This will train you in which hands to shove/call in certain situation.



      Regards,

      Kyle.
    • ExternalUseOnly
      ExternalUseOnly
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2010 Posts: 3,373
      Hey Stevie8

      Nice to see you posting again :)

      A flip is a flip and it's always gonna be that way. The cards don't have memory, but over a big enough sample (many thousands of hands in the same/similar situation) if you are getting the money as a slight favourite in the flip then you should see yourself slightly winning over a big enough sample.

      Does this help you at all?
      Carl
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      Originally posted by Stevie8
      Just a short question. If I lose on average 8 out of 10 coinflips for a period of time (whether cash or SNG) and my bankroll keeps revolving around the same number, does it mean that on the long term I'm gonna run good ?
      Are you asking, if you are unlucky for a while, you will then more likely to be lucky for a while? Because the answer is no.
    • Stevie8
      Stevie8
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.06.2012 Posts: 152
      actually i'm saying that if I'm not losing money while I'm unlucky, does this mean that I'm gonna make profit on the long term considering the fact that "luck" will be more balanced
    • OZSA
      OZSA
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.05.2009 Posts: 804
      its not like that, some people are luckboxers, who will be lucky even after winning 10flips in a row, others will keep on loosing flips.. you can't change that, move sites if ur sure you dont lose money because your own fault.
    • booomm
      booomm
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.03.2011 Posts: 677
      Originally posted by Stevie8
      actually i'm saying that if I'm not losing money while I'm unlucky, does this mean that I'm gonna make profit on the long term considering the fact that "luck" will be more balanced
      mathematically: NO
      you can't deduct future statistical results based on the past, not because you are 'unlucky' today that you have more chances to run good tommorow, chances are equal, but on the long term over a big sample, variance tends to zero.
      the odds are the same on any given day.
    • ClimaxingWalrus
      ClimaxingWalrus
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 132
      To say you lose an average of 8 out of 10 flips is ridiculous, maybe in a meaningless sample of <20k hands. Happens to everyone learn to deal with it or poker isn't for you.

      And obviously if your breaking even whilst losing a ton of flips then you will be winning when you start winning them, but in the meantime that doesn't mean you can't improve your game to the point where your still making money even while losing a bunch of flips.
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      Originally posted by Stevie8
      actually i'm saying that if I'm not losing money while I'm unlucky, does this mean that I'm gonna make profit on the long term considering the fact that "luck" will be more balanced
      If you are running badly but still breaking even then you are likely to make money in your next sample - just as you were likely to do so in your current sample but didn't.

      So let's say you "should" win at 4bb/100 but make -4bb/100 over 10K hands because you got sucked out on a lot, then all other factors being equal you would expect to make an amount deviating around 4bb/100 over the next 10K hands.

      The trick is running up a big enough sample and being accurate/honest about whether you actually ran badly or not. Most losing poker players tend to think they are unlucky.
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      Originally posted by OZSA
      its not like that, some people are luckboxers, who will be lucky even after winning 10flips in a row, others will keep on loosing flips.. you can't change that, move sites if ur sure you dont lose money because your own fault.
      This is not true or at least only true after events have occurred and not in a way that can be predicted based upon previous experience.

      If you take 10K poker players and each plays 10K hands, then at the end of this time, there will be a handful of "luckboxers" who won 10 flips in a row and "losers" who lost 10 flips in a row. But if you take those same 10K and have them play another 10K hands, the "luckboxers" are no more likely to win (or lose) flips than anyone else and the losers no more likely to lose (or win) than anyone else. In fact in the second sample the handful of "luckboxers" and "losers" will usually be different people to the first sample.

      So there is no such thing as a luckboxer or loser in the sense that each session is seperate to previous sessions and there is zero carry over of "luck" from the previous session. You fix "luck" by increasing your sample size, not by moving site - that's nonsensical.
    • OZSA
      OZSA
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.05.2009 Posts: 804
      luck is a complex thing that you cant measure by flipping 1000times and see the result.. if u think there are no people that generally run hot, and those who generally run bad... thats ...nice for u :D
    • BadeaCelRau
      BadeaCelRau
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      No Stevie, luck won't balance but look at the bright side. As likely as you lost 8 coin flips you might win 8 in the future .... or lose 8 more :D
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      Originally posted by OZSA
      luck is a complex thing that you cant measure by flipping 1000times and see the result.. if u think there are no people that generally run hot, and those who generally run bad... thats ...nice for u :D
      There is no such thing as luck in the way you are pretending there is but if there was, running scientific tests would be the correct way to study it. Obviously you would like to pretend that it's too "complex" to be analysed by science, people who believe in mysticism generally like to pull that kind of obfuscation.

      However, there are no people who are destined to run hot or cold, that's a fact. You cannot determine luckiness based on past experience. If you think otherwise, you believe in magic and you are the kind of fool who buys lucky amulets and plays roulette while wearing lucky underwear.

      Superstition has no place at the poker table and this sort of nonsense is harmful to beginners who might stupidly believe that anything you said has any sort of merit. I'm very happy with you personally believing this idiocy but it would be immoral for me to not point out how ridiculously wrong you are on a forum for beginning poker players.
    • tieppofer
      tieppofer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 282
      If you're only talking about the flips, mathematically speaking you are probably going to break even in both cases (in a sample of millions of hands facing that situation you are gonna win about 50% of them, hence the name "coin flip"). But if you're talking about your game in general, yes you are going to make a profit on the long run.
    • OZSA
      OZSA
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.05.2009 Posts: 804
      Originally posted by mrbeer9999
      Originally posted by OZSA
      luck is a complex thing that you cant measure by flipping 1000times and see the result.. if u think there are no people that generally run hot, and those who generally run bad... thats ...nice for u :D
      There is no such thing as luck in the way you are pretending there is but if there was, running scientific tests would be the correct way to study it. Obviously you would like to pretend that it's too "complex" to be analysed by science, people who believe in mysticism generally like to pull that kind of obfuscation.

      However, there are no people who are destined to run hot or cold, that's a fact. You cannot determine luckiness based on past experience. If you think otherwise, you believe in magic and you are the kind of fool who buys lucky amulets and plays roulette while wearing lucky underwear.

      Superstition has no place at the poker table and this sort of nonsense is harmful to beginners who might stupidly believe that anything you said has any sort of merit. I'm very happy with you personally believing this idiocy but it would be immoral for me to not point out how ridiculously wrong you are on a forum for beginning poker players.
      In the word complex, i meant is it luck getting AA vs KK ? it isnt if K hits the board... is it luck to get flop quads ? it isnt if none has a hand... thats complex, u gotta be lucky with ur own hand and other's hand aswell, to get the right setups at the right time, having the right hand after a fish went tilting, to be the first to stack him etc.. my opinion is based on experience, 2million+ hands, analyzing players and such... i dont buy amulets shits like that... ur aggressiveness reminds me of religious people tho :)
    • gogoshka
      gogoshka
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.02.2010 Posts: 3
      Originally posted by Stevie8
      actually i'm saying that if I'm not losing money while I'm unlucky, does this mean that I'm gonna make profit on the long term considering the fact that "luck" will be more balanced
      Yes
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      my opinion is based on experience, 2million+ hands, analyzing players and such... i dont buy amulets shits like that... ur aggressiveness reminds me of religious people tho :)
      Got it, you know all about probability but think some people are luckboxes and some are losers.