[NL2-NL10] Monster draw pushed flop

    • EinsteinFranck
      EinsteinFranck
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2009 Posts: 168
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $1.77
      CO:
      $0.74
      BU:
      $2.05
      SB (Hero):
      $1.98
      BB:
      $2.32
      UTG2:
      $2.09
      MP1:
      $0.54
      MP2:
      $1.89


      Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, K.
      2 folds, MP2 calls $0.02, 2 folds, BU calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.01, BB checks.

      Flop: ($0.08) 7, 9, 6 (4 players)
      Hero bets $0.08, BB folds, MP2 raises to $0.32, BU folds, Hero raises to $1.96, MP2 calls $1.55.

      Turn: ($3.91) 6 (2 players)


      River: ($3.91) 4 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $3.91.

      With the usual loose-passive profile of most of the opponents, I just complete the bb. I hit a flush draw plus a OESD. But I don't give myself the 15 outs since none of these draws are max. I still think I've the 12 outs.
      I pot bet first to maximise the fold equity. The raise makes me hesitate. I struggle to put Villain on the precise range. I still give him credits since they're most of the time quite passive. I put him on AsX, 8T, 86s, 87, 89, 9A, 9K, 77, 88, 99, 66, TT+ slowplay (it's still NL2).

      I decide to push. I hope to still generate a bit of fold equity with such a push.

      What do you think?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello EinsteinFranck,

      Nah, I don't like getting it in there cause you wont play your hand profitable enough. Vs a stronger range as something similar:

      Board: 7:club: 9:spade: 6:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    60.86%  58.30%   2.56% { 99, 77-66, T8s, As7s, T8o }
      UTG+1  39.14%  36.58%   2.56% { Ks8s }

      we ain't really getting the equity and therefore we can't play profitable in long run by going broke. At the best I'd just Call and reevaluate the turn. It's just a freeplay pot where we haven't invested any cent yet, not worth.

      Best Regards.