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[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR QJs turn play

    • JohnDoe1313
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,196
      Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP1: $21.87 (218.7 bb) - VPIP: 77, PFR: 19, 3B: 0, AF: 1.9, Hands: 53
      Hero (MP3): $4.08 (40.8 bb)
      CO: $10 (100 bb)
      BB: $6.94 (69.4 bb) - VPIP: 65, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 17
      BTN: $12.75 (127.5 bb)
      MP2: $9.19 (91.9 bb)
      UTG+2: $5.73 (57.3 bb)
      SB: $10 (100 bb)
      UTG+1: $6.41 (64.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J Q
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 3 folds, BB calls $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.55) A 3 A (3 players)
      BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($1.55) 6 (3 players)
      BB checks, MP1 bets $1.11, Hero raises to $3.58 and is all-in, BB folds, MP1 calls $2.47

      River: ($8.71) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      $8.71 pot ($0.43 rake)
      Final Board: A 3 A 6 Q
      MP1 showed 4 4 and lost (-$4.08 net)
      Hero showed J Q and won $8.28 ($4.20 net)
      BB mucked and lost (-$0.50 net)

      Hello. Looking back at this hand I should've cbet flop with backdoor equity on a dry board.

      But as played, I think it's either shove or fold on turn. His donking range is probably also his calling range, so it could look like this

      Board: A:diamond: A:spade: 3:club:  6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     68.32%  68.32%   0.00% { 99-33, A5s-A2s, K6s, Q6s, J6s, T6s, 96s, 86s, 76s, 64s+, 54s, 43s, KcTc, Kc9c, Tc9c, Kc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Kc7c, Tc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Kc5c, 7c5c, A7o-A2o, 86o, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43o }
      BB     31.68%  31.68%   0.00% { QcJc }

      I am behind and should fold. What do you think? Thanks
  • 1 reply
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678

      Without looking and making an analysis one can just think about what hands can be leading out here; bluffs & value. Well from valuehands you are not going to win often. From bluffs that can be ranging from PPs to semi-bluffs. Since u have the Qhiflush , you might be ahead against SCS lower than Q:cJ but they still have live cards for example

      more often than not they will also check the Turn with their draws instead of bluffing while value hands are pretty much going to bet every single time. I think we have to fold here on the Turn because of our misplay on the Flop

      Best regards,