Conti bet profit confusion

    • canniballsy
      canniballsy
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2012 Posts: 119
      Hi,
      After reading the strategy suggestions from Pokerstrategy about Contibet I have become really confused!
      It reads that a contibet has to be only 33% times successful to be profitable.
      Hows that possible?
      I mean lets say, I raised 3bb(.02/.05) from EP, I get called by BU only, flop doesnt help me, but I contibet(1/2 pot) regardless. My opponent folds. So I am getting 4.5BB profit from this.
      The next two times I do the same thing but I failed. So I raise 3bb, (twice) and contibet (1/2pot) twice. So I have lost 12bb. So my overall profit is -12bb + 4.5bb, which is a 7.5bb loss.
      I do not understand, in the scenario I have succeded in 1/3 of the case, but I incurred a 7.5bb loss.
      As again the above scenario is in the simplest form for easy understanding.
      Also, keep in mind that I am raising with AJo+ keeping in mind the positions.
      Can you please make me understand the math of a contibet only to be successful for 1/3 of the case to be profitable?
  • 11 replies
    • bjela
      bjela
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.06.2010 Posts: 1,012
      You don't calculate from the start of the hand, only from the cbet spot itself.

      So 2/3 times your "profit" will be -3bb and 1/2 it's +6bb, and it adds up to 0.


      EDIT: I've edited this as I've misread the op first time.
    • canniballsy
      canniballsy
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2012 Posts: 119
      I have no idea what calculation you have just posted on top here :f_confused:
      please, I need more elaboration. Thanks..
    • bjela
      bjela
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.06.2010 Posts: 1,012
      I see that I've screwed it up by not reading your post in more details. I've red that pot is 3bb, and actually your raise size is 3bb. I'll do it again :)

      You've raised to 3bb, and get called. Pot is 6bb.

      Every time you cbet, you risk 3bb. The money that was already in pot is considered "dead", you don't "risk" it twice.

      So every time your cbet works, you win that dead money, which is +6bb.

      Every time the cbet doesn't work, you only lose the 3bbs you've cbet with. That's -3bb for every cbet that fails.

      So 2/3 times your "profit" will be 3bb and 1/2 it's +6bb, and it adds up to 0. That 33% is 0 point.

      So in order for the cbet to be profitable, it needs to be successful >33% of the time.

      Hope it's clearer now :)
    • BadeaCelRau
      BadeaCelRau
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      You considered only 4.5bb which is what your opponent called and the blinds but forgot your own 3bb put on the table which are no longer yours once the flop is shown. So the pot is 7.5bb and you are risking a halfpot bet to win that amount.
    • canniballsy
      canniballsy
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2012 Posts: 119
      Thank you guys @bjela for explicitly making me understand the whole thing.
      I get it how it is profitable for the CBET to work more than 33% time to be profitable.
      We talked about profiting from CBET postflop
      But I have now the most idiotic question to ask.
      Am I not loosing money overall?
      Sure, the money that is already in the pot is dead and not mine. I understand that.
      But, that was mine to begin with.
      Am I really confused or am I missing something here?
      I hope someone to shed some sorta light here... :(
    • bjela
      bjela
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.06.2010 Posts: 1,012
      Well, you're not going to miss the flop every time, are you?
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      When you raise pre-flop you do it for value or a bluff.

      If you're bluffing with a pre-flop raise you do so based on the fact that the opponent fold and are banking on fold equity, its only when they call that your pre-flop plan didn't work and you move to the next move which is why the money is considered dead in the first place and now you make a new decision as to C-Bet or not based on the information available.
    • esuohdla
      esuohdla
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.05.2011 Posts: 411
      Originally posted by maheepsangari
      When you raise pre-flop you do it for value or a bluff.

      If you're bluffing with a pre-flop raise you do so based on the fact that the opponent fold and are banking on fold equity, its only when they call that your pre-flop plan didn't work and you move to the next move which is why the money is considered dead in the first place and now you make a new decision as to C-Bet or not based on the information available.
      Not really, plenty of times I make a -EV raise preflop to create a +EV spot postflop (someone who calls a ton pre but folds to cbets a lot postflop).
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Yeah thats true as well, preparatory bluffs are ultimately bluffs too so your plan from the beginning of the hand was to bluff and C-Bet if he calls pre-flop (again based on the situation on the flop i.e. high fold to C-Bet%) which makes the overall move +EV.

      I was just explaining to the OP why the money invested pre-flop is considered dead money on the flop.
    • BadeaCelRau
      BadeaCelRau
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.10.2010 Posts: 2,122
      Originally posted by canniballsy
      Sure, the money that is already in the pot is dead and not mine. I understand that.
      But, that was mine to begin with.
      Am I really confused or am I missing something here?
      I hope someone to shed some sorta light here... :(
      Preflop you started to fight because there were 1.5 blinds on the table. Maybe you bet because you thought you hold the winner (value), to intimidate your opponent (bluff) or because you felt a small investment can turn into a great reward (speculative hands). On the flop the betting round restarts from scratch and there is a new amount to fight for, dead on the table like the mandatory blinds. You made an investment (the preflop raise) with a purpose (getting as much money as possible from your opponent). The key here is that you don't put all the money for the sole purpose of making him fold to a contination bet. That's just a particularity which appears on each street of betting. You put the initial 3 blinds with a purpose and the cbet with a different purpose.
    • canniballsy
      canniballsy
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2012 Posts: 119
      Thanks guys..seriously..for shedding some true lights into the matter..
      I was having a hard time separating my preflop and postflop play...