[NL2-NL10] JJ in CO 3bet vs utg raiise

    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      Villain is 28/16/1.8 after 67 hands. fold to 3bet is 33%, fold to cbet is 33%.

      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      BTN: $15.84 (158.4 bb)
      SB: $46.88 (468.8 bb)
      BB: $13.28 (132.8 bb)
      UTG: $13 (130 bb)
      MP: $17.55 (175.5 bb)
      Hero (CO): $14.24 (142.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
      UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.90, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.60

      Flop: ($1.95) K 6 J (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

      Turn: ($4.95) Q (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $3.10, UTG calls $3.10

      River: ($11.15) 7 (2 players)
      UTG bets $7.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $7.50
  • 4 replies
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      I'd guess he's probably only opening about 10% from EP and calling 3bets with half of that, and also could probably take out AA, KK because he'd probably shove?

      So taht leaves us with TT, JJ, QQ, AQos+ and maybe a few a few suited connectors say T9s+

      Against that your equity on the flop is 89%

      He has:
      8.7% OESD
      4% flush draw

      With his fold to cbet at 33% odds are he's going to call that cbet with pretty much his entire range.

      Equity on Turn is 76%

      He has:
      10% chance of made straight
      7.5% chance of QQ
      5% flushdraw


      On the Turn he's more than likely going to start shutting down everything less than top pair or midpair plus draws.

      That puts your Equity on the River at 75%

      He has:
      4.35% chance of made flush
      10.4% of made straight
      10.4% of QQ

      10.4% of two pair
      42% of top pair
      21% of JJ

      Now I guess you have to work out what he's going to fold to a bet. I think it's safe to say he's going allin with the top 3 about 25% of the time. Teh rest I don't know.

      I suppose you could make a small bet that he'd call with his bad stuff and then raise with his top 25% and then fold if he shoves.

      Pls keep in mind I only started learning poker recently and don't know what I'm on about! :P
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello gavinonymous,

      Preflop: If you even 3bet here then at least do it bigger while being deeper.
      Postflop: I'd most likely Bet it bigger on the flop/turn cause if he calls you, he is willing to Call even bigger bets. And river is an easy fold, you are obviously beat here.

      Best Regards.
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      thanks for judging but I'm wondering how much of his range I am beat by.

      The river is an obvious bluff spot, and he might think he can push me off my hand with a worse hand.

      In this hand the villain had
      A J


      I had discounted AT from his pf calling range, and his range consisted of a lot of bluffs. If he had the nuts or was sure I didn't, wouldn't he expect me to continue my aggression? I strongly felt it was some kind of pushy play - also the bet was very quick - I called thankfully - was it really that wrong, not being results oriented? Aren't the pot odds on the river compared to the number of bluffs/worse hands in his range making it a +EV call?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by gavinonymous
      thanks for judging but I'm wondering how much of his range I am beat by.

      The river is an obvious bluff spot, and he might think he can push me off my hand with a worse hand.

      In this hand the villain had
      A J


      I had discounted AT from his pf calling range, and his range consisted of a lot of bluffs. If he had the nuts or was sure I didn't, wouldn't he expect me to continue my aggression? I strongly felt it was some kind of pushy play - also the bet was very quick - I called thankfully - was it really that wrong, not being results oriented? Aren't the pot odds on the river compared to the number of bluffs/worse hands in his range making it a +EV call?
      Why would he ever want you to continue your aggression? NEVER-EVER, you just Checking behind almost every hand there which ain't a flush.

      Also practically everything got there, what do you beat, a hand like Kx which is turned into bluff? So not really a +EV Call, in long run you going to lose money. I am not going to even take a look at the results here cause they don't affect my evaluation.