[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH KQs bluffshove turn

    • Schelles
      Schelles
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2007 Posts: 2,177
      Hello there,

      I'm from the Dutch community and I heard very good things about the judgings here from Farmarchist, so I decided to post some hands here as well.

      Villain plays 22/15 in 250 hands with 31 WTSD. Not sure if you need any other stats, as they probably aren't very reliable on such a small sample.

      Pre-flop is std. My cbet is about 62% of the pot.
      Another barrel on the turn is also pretty std I think.

      But now he raises my turnbet. He might do this for a number of reasons. To protect his Ax/set against the 2 flush draws out there. Or as a (semi-)bluff.
      I shove here because I thought that the gap between the hands that he is raising with & the ones that he can call a shove with is still pretty wide. I thought that he could only call w a set if I shove here, so I have a lot of FE & I'm always gonna have some equity if he calls.

      However, at the time I didn't see that he had so much behind. The fact that he's so deep only makes it more certain that he can only call with a very strong hand, but on the other hand I'm really risking a lot by making this huge shove.
      Making a smaller raise is senseless as well however, since I would be committed anyway.

      My questions here are:

      1. How do you rate my line?
      2. How would you respond to his turnraise?
      3. How can I calculate whether or not my shove is +EV, taking into account the FE and equity if I get called?

      Thanks in advance,
      chipl33t

      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: $41.18
      BB: $40.19
      Hero (UTG): $42.54
      MP: $10.25
      CO: $25.00
      BTN: $39.21

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has Q:heart: K:heart:

      Hero raises to $1.00, fold, fold, BTN calls $1.00, fold, fold

      Flop: ($2.35, 2 players) 7:spade: 5:heart: A:heart:
      Hero bets $1.38, BTN calls $1.38

      Turn: ($5.11, 2 players) 2:spade:
      Hero bets $3.02, BTN raises to $8.75, Hero raises to $40.16 and is all-in
  • 8 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Schelles,

      Welcome to the English NL Hand Evaluation Forum! Hopefully we will see more hands from you in the future. I hope that with our help you can improve your play and as well move up the limits. We will be waiting for the next hands and till that good luck on tables!

      Flop: Kinda leaky to CB so small cause you can't represent much with it than just a draw. While I assume you would rarely CB with Ax hand on such a drawy board this amount.

      As played
      Turn: Standard spot to Bet/Fold it, don't see why we should consider playing for the stacks here with just FD without even knowing much about the opponent. He has tons of hands which have us hardly beat which raises on the turn and meanwhile not that many bluffs. You just beat pure bluffs/floats which the guy most likely wont have that often and nor you don't know if he could have them.

      3. How can I calculate whether or not my shove is +EV, taking into account the FE and equity if I get called?

      Ask yourself how often do you see him bluffing, for example I don't see him really bluffing in those spots that often cause we also holding a FD so it makes him less likely to call with FD there and raise it on the turn like with K/Q high flush. What else would be floating the flop? Plus we are deeper here so which means we wont be here +EV. :)

      Best Regards.
    • Schelles
      Schelles
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2007 Posts: 2,177
      Hi Veriz,

      Thx for quick & solid review.

      You're right about the flopsizing. Normally I do cbet wet flops bigger, but I guess I was playin auto pilot & just used my slider to bet. (made those slider sizings bigger today btw).

      Alright, thx! :)

      About the 3th question. I was actually asking for the mathematical formula there. But I can look for it myself as well, should be somewhere in the strategy articles.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Schelles
      Hi Veriz,

      Thx for quick & solid review.

      You're right about the flopsizing. Normally I do cbet wet flops bigger, but I guess I was playin auto pilot & just used my slider to bet. (made those slider sizings bigger today btw).

      Alright, thx! :)

      About the 3th question. I was actually asking for the mathematical formula there. But I can look for it myself as well, should be somewhere in the strategy articles.
      There isn't just one formula which will tell you that, cause you will also need to put an opponent on a range here. From the range we can say either we do it profitable or not.

      What we can calculate here is we can calculate the break-even go-broke equity in case we get called.
    • Schelles
      Schelles
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2007 Posts: 2,177
      What is that? Break-even go-broke equity?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Schelles
      What is that? Break-even go-broke equity?
      Here is something written about that part: link.
    • Schelles
      Schelles
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2007 Posts: 2,177
      Thanks a lot! :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Schelles
      Thanks a lot! :)
      But if you need help in it then just let me know.
    • Schelles
      Schelles
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2007 Posts: 2,177
      Originally posted by veriz
      Originally posted by Schelles
      Thanks a lot! :)
      But if you need help in it then just let me know.
      Will do, thx again :)