[NL20-NL50] NL20 QQ river bad call most likely

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($55.12)
      BB ($5.80)
      UTG ($26.41)
      UTG+1 ($30.59)
      Hero ($20)
      BTN ($25.23)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: Q:heart:

      UTG raises to $0.60, UTG+1 calls $0.60, Hero raises to $2.40, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $1.80

      FLOP ($5.70) T:club: 3:club: 8:diamond:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3.10, UTG+1 calls $3.10

      TURN ($11.90) T:club: 3:club: 8:diamond: J:diamond:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $5.90, UTG+1 calls $5.90

      RIVER ($23.70) T:club: 3:club: 8:diamond: J:diamond: 2:club:

      UTG+1 bets $11.80, Hero calls $8.60 (AI)

      32/9/0.9, AF river 5, ag. freq river 42, fold to cbet 43, 98 hands

      on flop I should bet bigger, 5$ I guess, or 4.5 to get call from 8x, but with FD he would call pot size easily probably.

      Turn as the pot gets bigger, I start thinking if I bet too big, he might lay down his 2nd pairs and low FDs, so I don't bet too big.

      River it would be easy fold, but I checked agression on river and its muchg higher than on other streets and I need 20% of the time to be ahead, so I called. But agression on river may be due to his monsters hiting maybe over such sample.

      Practically I can only beat a bluff, and he can turn his weaker pairs into a bluff representing flush.
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