[NL2-NL10] [10NL SH, MSS] Ako against fish and shortstack

    • MoneyStef
      MoneyStef
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2011 Posts: 1,501
      Villain in CO is 39/20/6.3/1.86/30 (VPIP/PFR/3bet/AF/WTSD)
      Villain in BB is very fishy 57/6, but folds 60% on flop Cbet.
      I have an in between stack which is not good, but this is due to the traffic on Cake poker. There are not always enough (profitable) normal tables, so sometimes I think some 50 bb max tables on if there is a lot of fish on them.

      I get Ako in the SB. I raise the CO raise to play 3bet/broke. The fish in the BB calls, as does the CO. On the flop I don’t hit, but it looks like a flop that could have missed the CO. For the fish, he calls many hands, but he probably misses this flop a large amount of the time as I guess he will often play every A/K/Q, but fold 9 high or 6 high, so probably he misses this flop with a probability of about 70%. I decide to play it aggressively as I consider myself committed against the short stack and probably ahead of the fish his range. Even if they both call me, I likely have 6 outs often or could even be ahead if only the fish calls. What do you think of my flop play here? Or do you prefer a check(/fold?)?


      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($6.59)
      BB ($4.69)
      UTG ($3.80)
      UTG+1 ($4.62)
      CO ($2.70)
      BTN ($3.24)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: K:club:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.23, fold, Hero raises to $0.86, BB calls $0.76, CO calls $0.63

      FLOP ($2.58) 9:club: 6:heart: J:spade:

      Hero bets $1.90
  • 5 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hey MoneyStef,

      If you have a 65bb stack, I just rebuy to maximum so we play BSS and have an optimal strategy from there. I mean 65bb is in the middle of nowhereland as you cannot apply BSS nor MSS optimally

      What do you think of going all-in directly preflop? AKo versus a CO that loose + maybe a BB fish is pretty much the nuts preflop

      As played I would NOT make a cBet here because you need 2 folds from 2 loose players who can easily hit a J9* flop. Furthermore CO has $1.9 left so he might feel committed with any pair which is not benefiting your shove

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • MoneyStef
      MoneyStef
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2011 Posts: 1,501
      Hi Gerv,

      Thanks for your answer. However I already answered your first remark: I have an in between stack because I'm on a 50 bb max table (so I won 15 bb previously) ==> end up with 65 bb. I prefer not to leave the table because of the fish next to me (although I know that I would prefer to have him on my right rather than on my left).

      Probably going all in is better indeed as it avoids the situation that I'm in now, and I could get calls from worse from the fish and even have fold equity against pocket pairs of the CO. But I still fear that I will just pick up the small pot a large amount of the time, but loose a big pot when someone calls.

      Is just calling pre-flop an option? I can get out cheaply if I don't hit, but can get value out of the fish if I hit. When I hit I'm committed against the CO, so if he has a worse K/A I can probably get all in against him. Maybe raising smaller pre-flop would be an option as well?

      Thanks in advance
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      No calling preflop is a big mistake, I think you are more orientated towards ''protecting what you have'' rather than ''making +EV moves every single time''.

      Furthermore we miss 60% of the time on the Flop when we call and we let ourself getting run over by his cBets

      I can be wrong but the post you wrote above this tells me you run a bit scared money.

      The sources of income with a shove is 1) they all fold, 2) one of them calls and you are equitywise always ahead

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • MoneyStef
      MoneyStef
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2011 Posts: 1,501
      Hi Gerv,

      Thanks for your reply. I can assure you that this is not a scared money problem. Sorry for asking you to review this hand for the third time, but I did not succeed in making my point clear in the previous post.

      What I was trying to say: if I go all in here, I reduce very much the range of my opponents. All in seems a very strong move in the eyes of the fish in the SB, so let's assume that he only calls my all in with the following hands: KQ+, 99+. The CO is somewhat tighter and will probably only continue with 99+ and AQs+. This gives me 28.8% equity according to equilator, clearly -EV to go all in here. If I widen the fish his range to AT+ and 66+, and CO's range to AQ+ and 66+, I have 33% equity. I realise that this does not fully reflect my equity as the fish has a bigger stack than the CO, but what I'm trying to illustrate is that the all in move is at most marginal +EV and possibly strongly -EV under these assumptions. The pot we pick up is less than 4bbs, so I'm not sure if the move in total is +EV.

      Could you explain my where I go wrong in my reasonning?

      What would we do with AQ/AJ in this situation?

      Thanks in advance
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I see now what you are asking ;)

      From what I have read again you are too focused on people calling you off, it is definitely not -EV to get it in 3way with 28% equity if they fold a lot preflop. Your EV is determined preflop by the amount of folds% times the preflop pot. Additionally you also earn money by the Equity portion when you get called.

      There is a lot of ''ifs'' regarding your 28% equity because you need exactly 2 players to call you in order to get it with the exact range. If you are headsup, you earn more. If they show up with looser ranges, you earn more. They fold more preflop? You earn more

      I do not think you get a substantial tighter calling range from both players. CO plays shortstack strategy after all so any 3bet is an all-in for him

      Honestly I think when you shove, BB calls that the CO has a substantial tighter range like JJ+,AK which means he will fold a lot. AQ/AJ plays the same most of the time because I think we are often going to be headsup than 3way all-in

      - Gerv