[NL20-NL50] NL25, AQo, tough shit

    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      hands: 59
      vpip: 23.7
      PFR: 20.3
      AF: 3

      PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

      BB ($25.65)
      UTG ($30.25)
      Hero ($46.20)
      CO ($8.60)
      Button ($56.75)
      SB ($28.10)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q.
      UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, CO calls $1.25, Button calls $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1.

      Flop: ($6.35) A, J, 6 (5 players)
      BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $4.5, CO folds, Button calls $4.50, BB folds, UTG folds.

      Turn: ($15.35) 2 (2 players)
      Hero checks, Button bets $9.95, Hero calls $9.95.

      River: ($35.25) 2 (2 players)
      Hero checks, Button bets $24.95, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $35.25
  • 9 replies
    • lilprincess
      lilprincess
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 2,549
      please at least post villain stats if not reads, its impossible to answer in the vacuum
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      Originally posted by lilprincess
      please at least post villain stats if not reads, its impossible to answer in the vacuum
      srry, done, he seems solid, stats are on top of my post. Problem: he could call much wider on the button in this spot.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      1) He seems solid, preflop odds are great, he is on the button
      + Hero is also deep

      His range is ultra wide here
      I am not sure how he adjust his squeezing range, given that Hero is 200 deep
      But I think he still squeezes AJ+ JJ+
      and calls at least 45s+, broadway, smpp, suited aces, 78o+ maybe some suited gappers even

      The point is, he will have so many playable draws in his range
      so I would bet turn and hope he won't decide to reraise
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      mmh, if hes a thinking player he wont squeeze aj. So expensive, hence -ev here.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Originally posted by helemaalnicks
      mmh, if hes a thinking player he wont squeeze aj. So expensive, hence -ev here.
      I won't be that sure about it
      but anyway, there are only 6 possible AJ combos left
    • lilprincess
      lilprincess
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 2,549
      If he is a thinking player your check on the turn will be seen as a pot control move. He knows you have something like a good ace because you are the openraiser and you bet into 4 ppl. When he calls the flop he has a piece of it, because 2ppl left to act + your stronglooking cbet make a float suicidal with air.

      So when he bets that turn he either has a huge draw (K :diamond: Q:diamond: , K :diamond: T :diamond: or smth like that) that he is betting with because he has some FE and lots of outs, or he has a set of 6 or AJs.

      Having defined his range like that, you beat nothing on river as the flush hits, and you were already behind 66 & AJ.
      I would be very surprised if he bets AT (I assume he would squeeze AQ,AK preflop) here because I don't know what he expects to be called with that is worse.

      I hope my analysis is good and clear.
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      Its a pretty clear turn bet for me. I think AK is a clear 3-bet preflop. Calling AJ, A6 doesnt make much sense, even some players call suited aces a lot. However, he will have many other hands like suited connectors/one gappers and pockets in his range. I don't think he'll call a mid pocket like 88 on this flop. So his range is pretty much polarized: he has a set or a flush draw. Given he'd raise JJ most of the time preflop (he seems to be taggy, not calling to much but raising his hands), a draw is way more likely than any made hand which beats you.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      Originally posted by Thorsten77
      Its a pretty clear turn bet for me. I think AK is a clear 3-bet preflop. Calling AJ, A6 doesnt make much sense, even some players call suited aces a lot. However, he will have many other hands like suited connectors/one gappers and pockets in his range. I don't think he'll call a mid pocket like 88 on this flop. So his range is pretty much polarized: he has a set or a flush draw. Given he'd raise JJ most of the time preflop (he seems to be taggy, not calling to much but raising his hands), a draw is way more likely than any made hand which beats you.
      agree, but thoughts about a c/rai turn to trap floats?

      oh, and i think he'd raise a set multi-multiway to protect against draws.
    • lilprincess
      lilprincess
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 2,549
      checkraising allin looks wild :P