This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL20-NL50] 2pair vs bet river

    • Darkyd10
      Joined: 08.04.2010 Posts: 1,329
      Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $3.24 (20.3 bb)
      BB: $10.68 (66.8 bb)
      MP: $17.74 (110.9 bb)
      CO: $12.42 (77.6 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $17.69 (110.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with J A
      MP folds, CO calls $0.16, Hero raises to $0.80, 2 folds, CO calls $0.64

      Flop: ($1.84) 9 A J (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $1.16, CO calls $1.16

      Turn: ($4.16) Q (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $2.40, CO calls $2.40

      River: ($8.96) 5 (2 players)
      CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

      $16.96 pot ($0.76 rake)
      Final Board: 9 A J Q 5
      CO showed T 6 and won $16.20 ($7.84 net)
      Hero mucked J A and lost (-$8.36 net)
  • 2 replies
    • Darkyd10
      Joined: 08.04.2010 Posts: 1,329


      14,0 af river 48 wts

      78 hands
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Darkyd10,

      Bet the flop bigger! Bet the turn bigger! You are missing TONS of value here. But as played doubt that he is block-betting there with Ax, just hope that he has something like A5 which is blocking.

      For the given sample size AF is irrelevant and not correct. ;) He isn't really bluffing there but rather meanwhile had a lot of FDs in his range and maybe even SDs which completed on the turn. Any other hand would have raised earlier or played aggressively.

      We need ~25% equity on the river, we get:

      Board: 9:club: A:heart: J:club:  Q:spade:  5:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    77.78%  77.78%   0.00% { A5s, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, Tc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Kc6c, Qc6c, Jc6c, Tc6c, 9c6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Kc5c, Qc5c, Jc5c, Tc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Kc4c, Qc4c, Jc4c, 5c4c, Kc3c, Qc3c, Kc2c, Qc2c, A5o }
      UTG+1  22.22%  22.22%   0.00% { AcJh }

      doubt that he is bluffing and nor I don't see him that often to bet this way with just Ax. If we assume he has a wider range then sure, calling shouldn't be a mistake.

      Best Regards.