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[NL20-NL50] 2pair vs bet river

    • Darkyd10
      Darkyd10
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.04.2010 Posts: 1,329
      Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $3.24 (20.3 bb)
      BB: $10.68 (66.8 bb)
      MP: $17.74 (110.9 bb)
      CO: $12.42 (77.6 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $17.69 (110.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with J A
      MP folds, CO calls $0.16, Hero raises to $0.80, 2 folds, CO calls $0.64

      Flop: ($1.84) 9 A J (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $1.16, CO calls $1.16

      Turn: ($4.16) Q (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $2.40, CO calls $2.40

      River: ($8.96) 5 (2 players)
      CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

      Results:
      $16.96 pot ($0.76 rake)
      Final Board: 9 A J Q 5
      CO showed T 6 and won $16.20 ($7.84 net)
      Hero mucked J A and lost (-$8.36 net)
  • 2 replies
    • Darkyd10
      Darkyd10
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.04.2010 Posts: 1,329
      Villain:

      53/14/3.6

      14,0 af river 48 wts

      78 hands
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Darkyd10,

      Bet the flop bigger! Bet the turn bigger! You are missing TONS of value here. But as played doubt that he is block-betting there with Ax, just hope that he has something like A5 which is blocking.

      For the given sample size AF is irrelevant and not correct. ;) He isn't really bluffing there but rather meanwhile had a lot of FDs in his range and maybe even SDs which completed on the turn. Any other hand would have raised earlier or played aggressively.

      We need ~25% equity on the river, we get:

      Board: 9:club: A:heart: J:club:  Q:spade:  5:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    77.78%  77.78%   0.00% { A5s, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, Tc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Kc6c, Qc6c, Jc6c, Tc6c, 9c6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Kc5c, Qc5c, Jc5c, Tc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Kc4c, Qc4c, Jc4c, 5c4c, Kc3c, Qc3c, Kc2c, Qc2c, A5o }
      UTG+1  22.22%  22.22%   0.00% { AcJh }

      doubt that he is bluffing and nor I don't see him that often to bet this way with just Ax. If we assume he has a wider range then sure, calling shouldn't be a mistake.

      Best Regards.