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stud hi question - fd vs open aces

    • badgerer
      Joined: 29.03.2010 Posts: 555
      seat 4 is loose passive.

      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit Stud $0.05 Ante - 7 players

      3rd Street: (1.4 SB)
      Hero: 5:club: 2:club: Q:club: ___Hero completes
      Seat 2: xx xx 3:heart: ____Seat 2 folds
      Seat 4: xx xx A:spade: ____Seat 4 calls
      Seat 5: xx xx 2:heart: ____Seat 5 brings in for $0.10____Seat 5 calls
      Seat 6: xx xx T:diamond: ____Seat 6 folds
      Seat 7: xx xx 6:diamond: ____Seat 7 folds
      Seat 8: xx xx Q:diamond: ____Seat 8 folds

      4th Street: (4.4 SB) (3 players)
      Hero: 5:club: 2:club: Q:club: 8:club: ___Hero calls
      Seat 4: xx xx A:spade: A:club: ____Seat 4 bets
      Seat 5: xx xx 2:heart: 9:spade: ____Seat 5 folds

      5th Street: (3.2 BB) (2 players)
      Hero: 5:club: 2:club: Q:club: 8:club: J:diamond: ___Hero calls
      Seat 4: xx xx A:spade: A:club: J:heart: ____Seat 4 bets

      6th Street: (5.2 BB) (2 players)
      Hero: 5:club: 2:club: Q:club: 8:club: J:diamond: 4:diamond: ___Hero calls
      Seat 4: xx xx A:spade: A:club: J:heart: 6:heart: ____Seat 4 bets

      7th Street: (7.2 BB) (2 players)
      Hero: 5:club: 2:club: Q:club: 8:club: J:diamond: 4:diamond: 9:heart: ___Hero folds
      Seat 4: xx xx A:spade: A:club: J:heart: 6:heart: xx____Seat 4 bets

      assuming that a semibluff raise would never work against this player, should we fold 4th?

      is it ok to call down to the river once we do call 4th or do we give up when the big bet kicks in?
  • 3 replies
    • YohanN7
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,711
      There used to be a decent equity calculator for 7-Stud somewhere. I can't find it unfortunatly, so I'll guess.

      Fourth street: Eight clubs are alive. The flush will arrive close to 50% of the time. If this was 3-way or more, I think that you should be happy to cap on fourth street if you could.

      Fifth street: You get 4:1, and you are something like 2:1 against to make the flush. Suppose you do make the flush and suppose too that it holds up and the your opponent calls a raise on sixth but folds on the river. Then you make an investment of a either 1 or 2 bets or to win 6 or 5 bets. The first case applies when you hit on sixth (and can raise), and the second case when you hit on seventh and your opponent folds.

      So far it looks close to trivial. Call!

      The only problem is that your opponent may have redraws to a full house. Discount that possibility a bit. You hold a jack to block his jack. (On sixth, there is a dead 6 from seat 7). Besides, he didn't raise on third street.

      Unfortunatly, I dont have the stamina to calculate all by hand, but it's my gut feeling that the reverse implied odds (due to his redraws) could not possibly balance the flushes where you actually win. You shouldn't often lose more than 3 bets from fifth and on.

      [This is all said by a player so incredibly weak/tight/stupid that he did NOT lose 4 bets on seventh street with AAAA at Full Tilt once. You'll have to read my blog Yohans whinery (post #5) for that. :D ]

      /Johan = :f_confused:
    • madorjan
      Joined: 13.11.2009 Posts: 5,561

      Your Villain never ever has trips here when he just called on 3rd, therefore you shouldn't be afraid to draw to your FD (and backdoor 2pair and stuff). Now with a FD you're ahead on 4th against a one pair hand (that I assume your Villain has, since he didn't isolate on 3rd). However given that you don't have any fold equity, and would probably expose your hand with a raise against an open overpair, I like the call on 4th. Because of that, the rest is pretty standard, once again, I believe a non-absolutely-brain-damaged player will never ever have trips here.

      You can use as an equity calculator, for example to see this:

      ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional)
      Stud Hi, Generic syntax
      Dead - 3hTd6dQd2h9s
      PLAYER_1 Qc5c2c8c
      PLAYER_2 *s*sAsAc, {BBAs}Ac
      1200000 trials (randomized)

      All-in Equity
      Qc5c2c8c --- Equity %=47,1752% --- Wins Hi %=47,1748% --- Ties Hi %=0,0009% --- Wins Hi Count=566097 --- Ties Hi Count=11
      *s*sAsAc, {BBAs}Ac --- Equity %=52,8248% --- Wins Hi %=52,8243% --- Ties Hi %=0,0009% --- Wins Hi Count=633892 --- Ties Hi Count=11

    • RainmanTrail
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 24
      I'm with majordan on this one. Since this is a 0.25-0.50 game, I'm under the assumption that the A did not slow play 3rd street. This would be a rare play to run into at these levels. And even at the higher stakes, you're not going to run into AAA here very often on 4th street. You are a favorite to a one pair hand, so you should definitely not be folding this hand on 4th street.