[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR Restealing range vs SS

    • JohnDoe1313
      JohnDoe1313
      Diamond
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,078
      Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP1: $7.32 (73.2 bb)
      MP3: $9.70 (97 bb)
      Hero (BB): $4 (40 bb)
      BTN: $2.30 (23 bb) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, BU steal: 40 (15), Ft3bet: 57 (7), Hands: 307
      MP2: $2.35 (23.5 bb)
      CO: $1.77 (17.7 bb)
      SB: $15.98 (159.8 bb) - VPIP: 51, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 1.1, Hands: 237
      UTG+2: $10.56 (105.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with T A
      5 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero raises to $4 and is all-in, BTN folds

      Results:
      $0.65 pot
      Hero mucked T A and won $0.65 ($0.35 net)


      Hi. I wanted to calculate a defending handrange in this spot. The result is I can resteal about 60% in this spot, which seems to me like there is a mistake somewhere.

      My calculation goes like this:

      BU's open raise range - There is a loose player in SB, so I expect BU to steal more Ax and broadway hands: 66+,A5s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo (262 hands)


      His 3bet AI calling range could look like this: 88+,AJs+,AQo+ (78 hands)


      EV=FEQ*pot + (1-FEQ)*(EQ*final pot - investment)

      FEQ=(262-78)/262=0,702=70,2%
      pot=$0,45
      final pot=(2*$2,30+$0,05)*0,95=$4,41
      investment= $2,2

      EV=0

      0=0,702*$0,45+(1-0,702)*(EQ*$4,41 - $2,2)
      0=$0,3159+$1,31418*EQ - $0,6556
      $0,3397=$1,31418*EQ

      EQ=25,8%

      which leads into this range


      I would expect BU to openraise looser than call 3bets looser. I think 64% to defend is too much. Am I leaking here or what :f_confused: Thanks
  • 1 reply
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Well you assume that your opponent is a thinking player which on your limits is most likely not

      Therefore you assume a range based on what you see, I just think he is also going to steal more PPs.

      I do not expect him to fold 70% when raising from the button, that's absurd and unrealistic in most cases. If In any case he does this then you can resteal the range you illustrated

      So if he folds 60% of the Time, you need 37% equity in general which yields a small blind every hand you do this move. It is a more robust approach since break-even analysis just turns on your variance on 10NL

      - Gerv