problems with moving up in limits

    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      Hey guys, ive been playing poker for about 3 months now, and i have a very weird problem. Im playing NL2 and every time (its happened to me 4 times already) im trying to move to higher limit, i just get beaten real hard by variance.

      For example, im beating the game @NL2 pretty easily, when i reach $100 bakroll, i take a shot at NL5 and i just lose 7-8 buy-ins in a course of like 1000 hands and have to move back down.

      As i said, its happened to me 4 times already and i dont know what to do now, just keep trying or what? Its not like NL5 is tough for me (i honestly think they are even worse than those at NL2) i just run so bad every time when i move up.

      I started playing with $11 i got it up to $190 in like 30 000 hands, moved directly to NL10 and in 2500 hands my BR was back at $24 and ofc i moved to NL2.

      Its really frustrating when u work hard to get your bankroll up to an amount you can play higher limit, and just get purely destroyed by variance every time.

      This is my last graph, when i was moving up to NL5, and, AFTER A FEW HOURS of playing 5 tables, was forced to go back to NL2






      Hows it possible that i just run so bad when i move up a limit? Will this never end or what? How many times do i have to try?
  • 25 replies
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      [ ] running bad every time, site is rigged

      [x] learn to improve your game, you probably have major leaks
    • FlashDavin
      FlashDavin
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2011 Posts: 421
      I disagree with you Ragney.

      When I take shots, I find I over adjust and don't play my normal game. When you move up, don't play ANY different because it's just different bet sizes. Players at NL5 are not THAT much stronger than the ones at NL2 and some are in fact even worse. It's all mental, and it was for me too. Once you remind yourself it's all the same, you'll do better. Don't start making big bluffs or tricky moves just because it's now NL5. Just play your standard ABC game!
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      1. Anyone playing micro stakes have major leaks, if not why the fuck are u playing nl2? There is enough room to improve. Better skill = higher winrate.

      2. Lol at nl5 and nl2 monetary mentalities. If you have issues with that, how you ever going to climb up? Suck it up and accept the facts.

      3. Trust me I made the same mistake when I started out, spend too much time playing instead of improving my game. I regret this mistake.
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      Ragney, first of all, when did i ever say the site is rigged or something? I was just saying im running on a bad side of variance every time i move up.

      As why am i playing NL2, i think i said im new to poker, playing it for 3months hardly and not often at all. I expect u were already owning high stakes by that time.

      I never said i have no leaks, ofc i do, everyone has. I just dont think thats the issue here, cause same as im beating NL2, i guess i could do that at NL5 as well. Players are even worse there, from what ive seen. I just get really unlucky every time i move up and wanna do something about it, not get stuck at NL2
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Read a variance book (also part of improving your game)
    • Ectoz
      Ectoz
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2010 Posts: 135
      Originally posted by zumpar

      I started playing with $11 i got it up to $190 in like 30 000 hands, moved directly to NL10 and in 2500 hands my BR was back at $24 and ofc i moved to NL2.

      I don't understand this. You said you took a shot at nl5 not 10. I guess it's not such a big deal playing nl10 with 19 BI,but in your case I don't think you should,being new to the game like you said
    • steven5656
      steven5656
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 34
      hey dude i know what u mean. moving up stakes and running bad is sick. it took me like 4 shots at nl25 from nl 10. it was just like your graph I guess. I had like 150000 hands at nl10 with a good win rate and 25000 hands from shots at nl 25 with like -10bb/100 and hugely under ev, basically countering all the money i made at nl 10!

      The best advice i can give you is just keep grinding and trying to take shots because variance is sick when u move up. u wont know if u actually beat that limit or not until u have a decent hand sample do try not to get angry if you get owned by variance when u try move up. u can easy loes 8 Bi in a couple hours playing nl very well its just the nature of the games.
      Another thing is make sure u are clearing a FDP or getting rakeback when grinding micro's because ur basicaly getting raped by the poker room. I was winning at nl 10 at about 5bb/100 but paying 8bb/100 in rake. pretty sick. if i had been clearing a FDB or had rakeback i could have moved up far sooner. Well worth the effort to do.
    • zobupasts
      zobupasts
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2009 Posts: 310
      Originally posted by FlashDavin
      When you move up, don't play ANY different because it's just different bet sizes. Players at NL5 are not THAT much stronger than the ones at NL2 and some are in fact even worse. It's all mental, and it was for me too. Once you remind yourself it's all the same, you'll do better. Don't start making big bluffs or tricky moves just because it's now NL5. Just play your standard ABC game!
      +1. Solid advice.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Tbh, imo Ragney is a little overzealous to issue the stock response of "it's because you suck". Nor is his advice especially useful.

      Even if you weren't a winning player at 5nl, there is no way you would be losing at that rate. There are two more likely possibilities -

      1) You say you've had 4 attempts at moving up. This is probably not a big sample. It's possible to run bad every time you move up, coincidentally. Yes it's bad luck. Unheard of? Not really.

      2) FlashDavin offers a likely suggestion. It's psychological. You think/feel you should be playing a lot different now you move up. Your mind freezes in big pots or you play in a different way than you usually do because the stakes are different. Once you realise 5nl is not that much different to 2nl, your 5nl graph will look similar to your 2nl graph.

      gl
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      Tbh, imo Ragney is a little overzealous to issue the stock response of "it's because you suck". Nor is his advice especially useful.

      Even if you weren't a winning player at 5nl, there is no way you would be losing at that rate. There are two more likely possibilities -

      1) You say you've had 4 attempts at moving up. This is probably not a big sample. It's possible to run bad every time you move up, coincidentally. Yes it's bad luck. Unheard of? Not really.

      2) FlashDavin offers a likely suggestion. It's psychological. You think/feel you should be playing a lot different now you move up. Your mind freezes in big pots or you play in a different way than you usually do because the stakes are different. Once you realise 5nl is not that much different to 2nl, your 5nl graph will look similar to your 2nl graph.

      gl
      So in the end the conclusion is same. Read a variance book (which also covers mentality issues). And yeah I keep my advice short and not very friendly, but I know someone back than who said this to me and when I realized after spending extra time learning the game that I really used to suck at poker.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by ragney

      So in the end the conclusion is same. Read a variance book (which also covers mentality issues). And yeah I keep my advice short and not very friendly, but I know someone back than who said this to me and when I realized after spending extra time learning the game that I really used to suck at poker.
      In your first post you implied it was "major leaks" rather than variance causing the downswings.

      And yeah, I guess your advice didn't seem very friendly. Maybe that is just your style though.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Hi guys,

      I'm moving this post to our Learning to Win board, I feel it's more relevant in there :)


      Regards,
      Gary
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      Originally posted by ragney

      So in the end the conclusion is same. Read a variance book (which also covers mentality issues). And yeah I keep my advice short and not very friendly, but I know someone back than who said this to me and when I realized after spending extra time learning the game that I really used to suck at poker.
      In your first post you implied it was "major leaks" rather than variance causing the downswings.

      And yeah, I guess your advice didn't seem very friendly. Maybe that is just your style though.
      Bigger downswings usually occur when your winrate/edge over other players is smaller. I used to have 25-30BI below EV on NL25 over 75k hands when the 200k hands before I won over $2000. Took a long break and improved my game significantly. Played about 100k games after that and I think I've never had a downswing more than 10BI. Even 5-6BI swings were pretty rare back than. Wish I still had HM1 to find 'em though.
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      So, what is a variance book?

      /Johan = :f_confused:
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I think he meant a book like Mental Game of Poker which helps you cope with variance.
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      Originally posted by maheepsangari
      I think he meant a book like Mental Game of Poker which helps you cope with variance.
      Nah...I think he might benefit more reading "The Poker Mindset" some great stuff in that book. Will help him look at poker in the right light as well.
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      Aha!

      But, alas, I don't think a book is enough for me. I need a psychiatrist. No. I don't need a psychiatrist. I need a whole team :D

      A little bit more seriously: The term variance is thrown around quite randomly some times. It's (understandably) used to explain shorter downswings, (but never ever ever upswings), both by those who suffer from them, and by their psychiatrists.

      To respond to the original post: I don't think that you need a variance book as a first resort.

      First make sure that you know what variance is - in exact mathematical terms. Then, analyze your hands. You should be able to parse trough all of them if you have tracking software (1500 hands moving up to NL5?). Most player don't know the exact definition of variance. It suffices to say here that it has close to nothing to do with moving up and down in limits. It also has quite little (still something though) do do with edge over opponents. You can be a dog and still have lower variance than a winning player. If you go from a 60% favourite to a 55% favourite, then your expected variance is likely decreasing, not increasing.

      There is also expected variance and measured variance. They need not coincide, To wit, you will have variance of variance. You will have variance of variance of ..., ad infinitum. Luck exists - but only in the rear view mirror.

      If you actually carry trough that type of analysis, you are probably going wo find that you either played pretty badly in a couple of spots or were unlucky in a couple of spots. If you find that your flopped sets were cracked 17 times of 30, well, you weren't lucky. If you lost 14 buy-ins with TPTK and won only 9 buy-ins with the same hand versus that loose dude always calling you behind preflop, well ..., chances are that the dude behind isn't that bad. If you played three 400 BB all in hands and lost all of them (entirely possible) in coinflips, you were certainly unlucky. You still may have played badly the other 1497 hands.

      Unless you post a bunch of hands for analysis, nobody (psychiatrists or mathematicians or not) can tell you if you could have done much better when it comes to playing. Luck exists - but only in the rear view mirror.

      Fellow strategist ragney does put the emphasis in the right place. Hats off to him! Hell, I too need that kick in the arse too once per week - at least. Instead of analyzing why the f-ck i lose X sessions when i made that particular brilliant calldown session Y when blablabla...

      / Johan = :f_confused:
    • FlashDavin
      FlashDavin
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2011 Posts: 421


      +1. Solid advice.
      Thanks.

      I don't think Ragney understood my post. Of course this player has leaks. We all do (except maybe pleno). I would say though, that this player is showing a large win rate at NL2. Are you perhaps suggesting the skill level at NL5 is that much higher to show those types of losses? I don't think so. Also, I am not saying that I think $2 --> $5 is a big difference in real life currency. Hell that's one scoop of ice cream vs buying two scoops.

      The difference at a poker table, however, can mentally change your game. I know it did for me. All my advice is suggesting, is to not change your style immediately once you move up. Not everyone is all of a sudden pulling moves at NL5 vs NL2. Of course each limit is slightly different and you can adjust over time, but not until you know it's profitable to do so.
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      what do you know.... again and again...
      ill take a shot at NL5 again tomorrow, see if the history repeats for the 5th time :(



      hopefully not

      still plenty under EV tho



    • 1
    • 2