[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 JTs turn semibluff push

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -

      BB: $24.56
      UTG: $21.20
      MP: $28.30
      CO: $27.92
      Hero (BTN): $24.75
      SB: $31.61

      Pre Flop: ($0.37) Hero is BTN with T :spade: J :spade:
      UTG calls $0.12, MP raises to $1.12, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.12, 2 folds, UTG calls $1

      Flop: ($3.73) A :spade: 6 :heart: 8 :spade: (3 players)
      UTG checks, MP bets $2.79, Hero calls $2.79, UTG folds

      Turn: ($9.31) Q :heart: (2 players)
      MP bets $5.50, Hero raises to $20.84,


      UTG 72/34 fish

      MP



      What do you think about this turn semibluff push? With Q I got plus equity, and he will have a tough time to call with anything worse than twopair.
  • 14 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello pcfmcc02,

      Against such a player not really, cause I assume we rarely have much fold equity vs his Ax hands. Meanwhile we have decent implied odds which I'd use while he gives us them.

      Best Regards.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Why not raise veriz? He will instafold AK/AJ and maybe not even shove with AQ over our raise cause we rep sets sooo hard
    • ACi0coiu
      ACi0coiu
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2010 Posts: 3,517
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      He will instafold AK/AJ
      Fishez never fold TP A.

      we rep sets sooo hard
      Are you trying to rep a hand vs a players who plays 90% of the hands? Never a good idea:D
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Originally posted by ACi0coiu
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      He will instafold AK/AJ
      Fishez never fold TP A.

      we rep sets sooo hard
      Are you trying to rep a hand vs a players who plays 90% of the hands? Never a good idea:D
      ?

      He's not a fish, but a 20/18 regular.
    • ACi0coiu
      ACi0coiu
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2010 Posts: 3,517
      Oh sorry, I haven't looked at the stats. My bad.

      If you raise here, you probably should shove the river also, cause Ax calls once on turn.

      And because of the board texture (2 FDs), he'll probably still make a crying call on a non and on the river. So if you raise turn, I think you should shove any and river, wich is 50% of the time, so you're BE.

      LE: actually, the chances to river a spade or a heart is less then 50%, 'cause there are more and cards in the deck.
    • flekozub
      flekozub
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.02.2012 Posts: 102
      @ACi0coiu
      Please try to look at hand little better in future as you write nonsenses.

      I'm more inclined to call here, eventho I think shoving also isn't mistake, because:

      1. We make lower variance move and we know people at lower stakes likes to call (even regs).
      2. Villain is on tighter side, that makes me believe he doesn't isolate very wide given position of limper and his own. So, actually his range looks like AJ+, 88+, KJ+ or maybe even tighter.
      I don't expect him betting TT-KK on turn so his range looks weighted to value.

      His low wtsd and big 2barrel could make us thinking shove is better but it's not standard spot and we shouldn't give so much credit to stats as there isn't stat how much he 2barrel after isolation.
    • zobupasts
      zobupasts
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2009 Posts: 310
      Originally posted by ACi0coiu
      If you raise here, you probably should shove the river also, cause Ax calls once on turn.
      more and cards in the deck.
      Take a look at stacksizes and betsizes. There is no money left to shove on the river. If we just minraise on the turn and villain just calls than there would be ~$10 in our stack and pot would be ~$30. And that gives us close to none fold equity.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Originally posted by zobupasts
      Originally posted by ACi0coiu
      If you raise here, you probably should shove the river also, cause Ax calls once on turn.
      more and cards in the deck.
      Take a look at stacksizes and betsizes. There is no money left to shove on the river. If we just minraise on the turn and villain just calls than there would be ~$10 in our stack and pot would be ~$30. And that gives us close to none fold equity.
      I agree. As the title of the post says, and can be seen from the betsize, I actually pushed on the turn. If we decide to raise, I dont think that any kind of smaller raise makes sense here.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by pcfmcc02
      Originally posted by zobupasts
      Originally posted by ACi0coiu
      If you raise here, you probably should shove the river also, cause Ax calls once on turn.
      more and cards in the deck.
      Take a look at stacksizes and betsizes. There is no money left to shove on the river. If we just minraise on the turn and villain just calls than there would be ~$10 in our stack and pot would be ~$30. And that gives us close to none fold equity.
      I agree. As the title of the post says, and can be seen from the betsize, I actually pushed on the turn. If we decide to raise, I dont think that any kind of smaller raise makes sense here.
      Did he call? :D
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      No, he tanked for a while, and folded... :)
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by pcfmcc02
      No, he tanked for a while, and folded... :)
      Imo you played it great.

      Veriz probably also thought you played vs the fish
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Originally posted by pcfmcc02
      No, he tanked for a while, and folded... :)
      Imo you played it great.

      Veriz probably also thought you played vs the fish
      Not really, I took look mainly at his W$SD which would tell us that he could overplay easily his Ax hand. That's why I said I don't see him folding that often there.

      Also disagree hardly that we are representing set. We are rarely representing a set on such a board cause we would be raising them on the flop and protecting our hand and not flatting. So it's towards AQ hands only what we are representing.

      With assumptions that the guy is capable of folding Ax hands then obviously we can ship there. But our range is also towards to very capped range only cause a reg would usually raise the flop to protect from draws even if the fish is in the pot. So Q:sXs or some other equity hand.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Originally posted by veriz
      But our range is also towards to very capped range only cause a reg would usually raise the flop to protect from draws even if the fish is in the pot. So Q:sXs or some other equity hand.
      I missed that point in my thought-process... Fortunately he wasnt a very good reg, probably just looked on his cards, saw he had only TP, and folded (so I wasnt very good either, cause I was thinking, that he simply cant call a turn push with one-pair hand... :D ). But sure, against better opponent I could have been in trouble... :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by pcfmcc02
      Originally posted by veriz
      But our range is also towards to very capped range only cause a reg would usually raise the flop to protect from draws even if the fish is in the pot. So Q:sXs or some other equity hand.
      I missed that point in my thought-process... Fortunately he wasnt a very good reg, probably just looked on his cards, saw he had only TP, and folded (so I wasnt very good either, cause I was thinking, that he simply cant call a turn push with one-pair hand... :D ). But sure, against better opponent I could have been in trouble... :)
      But yeah, the card is one of the best cards to shove, I do agree on that. But if it's going to be the best spot to gain the fold equity with his W$SD. :D Vs 50% I would snap-shove most likely and assuming to have tons of fold equity.