[NL2-NL10] NL5 JJ vs AQs Call the river?

    • SecurityDrew
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 78
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      SB ($8.76)
      BB ($12.31)
      UTG ($5.04)
      UTG+1 ($2.12)
      Hero ($7.70)
      MP1 ($16.38)
      MP2 ($22.17)
      CO ($2.50)
      BTN ($4.25)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: J:club:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, MP2 calls $0.15, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.45, MP2 calls $0.45

      FLOP ($1.82) 5:diamond: T:spade: T:club:

      BB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.30, MP2 folds, BB calls $0.80

      TURN ($4.42) 5:diamond: T:spade: T:club: 2:club:

      BB bets $0.70, Hero raises to $3.52, BB calls $2.82

      RIVER ($11.46) 5:diamond: T:spade: T:club: 2:club: 5:club:

      BB bets $6.89 (AI), Hero calls $2.28 (AI)

      BB shows Q:club: A:club:
      (Pre 46%, Flop 27.7%, Turn 31.8%)

      Hero shows J:diamond: J:club:
      (Pre 54%, Flop 72.3%, Turn 68.2%)

      BB wins $15.36

      The final call is $2.28 to win $15. So about 7:1. so by my estimate he needs to be bluffing 14% of the time to male this profitable. Small sample but his stats 48/22/1.5 VPIP/PFR/Agr
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SecurityDrew,

      Welcome to the English NL Hand Evaluation Forum! Hopefully we will see more hands from you in the future. I hope that with our help you can improve your play and as well move up the limits. We will be waiting for the next hands and till that good luck on tables!

      Already on the flop you should ask yourself if it's worth to Raise there, might even isolate vs strong hands there. But of course it's possible but then I would end up raising on the turn cause there ain't really many worse hands which pay us and he may easily just trap or try to induce.

      As played the river is easy fold, you are rarely ahead there vs his line, can't see him shoving with worse vs our 2x Raise line.

      Best Regards.