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[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR 77 middle pair vs donkbet

    • JohnDoe1313
      JohnDoe1313
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,196
      Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $10.38 (103.8 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $4 (40 bb)
      BB: $4 (40 bb)
      MP: $16.25 (162.5 bb)
      SB: $10.19 (101.9 bb) - VPIP: 37, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 1.2, Hands: 182
      CO: $19.32 (193.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7 7
      Hero raises to $0.40, 3 folds, SB calls $0.35, BB folds

      Flop: ($0.90) 6 9 2 (2 players)
      SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1

      Turn: ($3.90) 2 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($3.90) 5 (2 players)
      SB bets $2.10, Hero folds

      Results:
      $3.90 pot ($0.19 rake)
      Final Board: 6 9 2 2 5
      Hero mucked 7 7 and lost (-$1.90 net)
      SB mucked and won $3.71 ($1.81 net)


      Hey. My question is about flop play. If I call his bet, I have no idea where I stand on turn. So I decided to raise to get value from straight and gutshot draws. Should I cbet turn also? Thanks
  • 5 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hello,

      You block 87 which is a big problem right here. I think the play here is fine because the 5 is a bit of an annoying card.

      If you think he calls looser a lot then you can valueshove the Turn expecting to be ahead most of the time

      - Gerv
    • JohnDoe1313
      JohnDoe1313
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,196
      The problem is I don't know if I get called light on turn. Otherwise I would shove it.

      So raising flop should be my preferred option? Also, my plan was folding any river. Would you consider calling specific cards?
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Yes you do know, you have 182 hands on him so you can profile him for me.

      You only posted his VPIP/PFR/3bet/AF so you cannot profile anything hence you need all his stats to make a correct profiling

      Can you profile him?
    • JohnDoe1313
      JohnDoe1313
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,196
      I don't know what I should be looking for, but I'll try.

      Opponent's stats


      His coldcall in SB is 67 (8). I assume his range is wide. He doesn't donk a lot and he's passive. He probably won't play like this with any 2, but value hands - pocket pairs, 6x, 9x, sets?. His WTSD indicates that he won't fold any of those hands.

      On the other hand, he isn't loose enough to play Q6-96. I think there are more 9x in his range than 6x.

      Board: 6:diamond: 9:heart: 2:club:  2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    65.19%  64.87%   0.32% { JJ-22, A9s, A6s, K9s, K6s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 97s+, 86s, 76s, 65s, A9o, A6o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 97o+, 76o, 65o }
      MP3    34.81%  34.50%   0.32% { 7d7s }

      Therefore I should probably give up.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Oh his AFq is 19% and 0.8 AF which is new information you give me here. Then raising the Flop is more or less terrible because I do not think he donks with worse hands

      That said I think when you raise him, we just have to go to showdown as he is likely to call you down & nothing changed on the Board

      You posted his AF average which is a novice mistake since we obviously play the Flop & the weight of the turn & River AF is the same as the Flop AF i foyu calculate the average

      - Gerv