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[NL2-NL10] AKs 3bet pot two over + gutshot

    • Gonchan
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,877
      IPoker, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): $8.30 (41.5 bb)
      BB: $20.44 (102.2 bb)
      CO: $13.45 (67.2 bb)
      BTN: $28.04 (140.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K A
      CO calls $0.20, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1, BB folds, CO calls $0.80

      Flop: ($2.20) Q 4 T (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.40, CO raises to $12.45 and is all-in, Hero calls $5.90 and is all-in

      Turn: ($16.80) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
      River: ($16.80) T (2 players, 2 are all-in)

      $16.80 pot ($0.84 rake)
      Final Board: Q 4 T 3 T
      Hero mucked K A and lost (-$8.30 net)
      CO showed K Q and won $15.96 ($7.66 net)

      even against Q, I have 9~10 outs(I doubt A, K is clean outs because of blocker) so shove is ok?
  • 1 reply
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678

      U have to realize that you do not have clean outs. You have 4 clean outs to the gutshot (or 3 if he has QJ). The other 6 we have to discount because sometimes he has AT/AQ/KQ/QT

      Therefore I just bet/fold here because our overall equity is too bad to call:

      Board: Q:diamond: 4:spade: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    29.29%  29.02%   0.27% { AdKd }
      MP3    70.71%  70.44%   0.27% { 44, AQs, ATs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }

      Our pot odds are less than 2:1 so we need more equity than we have

      - Gerv