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[NL20-NL50] NL20€ - AhTh on JhTs9h flop

    • RainbowPonny
      Joined: 19.10.2010 Posts: 563
      Prima Network $20.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1833041
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (SB): $20.10
      BB: $17.53
      UTG: $24.52
      MP: $22.14
      CO: $24.08
      BTN: $36.19

      Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero is SB with T :heart: A :heart:
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.40) T :spade: J :heart: 9 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.90, Hero raises to $3.30, BTN raises to $6.70, Hero raises to $19.50, BTN calls $12.80

      Turn: ($40.40) K :club: (2 players)

      River: ($40.40) T :diamond: (2 players)

      Villain is unknown on anon tables, been limping some hands so i assume he is not a great player.

      OTF i cr here since my hand has ALOT of equity in the hand while i dont like cc and i dont like cf. I can get some Jx hands to fold with a cr and im not to afraid of getting it in even vs a nutted range.

      Board: J:heart: T:spade: 9:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    40.51%  40.03%   0.48% { AhTh }
      MP3    59.49%  59.02%   0.48% { 99+, KQs, Q8s, JTs, 87s, KQo, JTo, 87o }

      My equity there is 40% which is about right concidering how the action went, and after he 3bets me i cant really do much but shove i think. (if he would 3b shove flop i would be priced in tho marginal - 16,2/19,5+1,4+19,5=0,4 which means i need 40% in that scenario) When he 3b he gives me the opportunity to shove and he still can fold.(Is my thought process right here?)

      Also, he might still call with a worse flushdraw, QJ type of hands which im ahead of. And i might have some fold equity even tho its close to 0 once he raises me.
  • 2 replies
    • mkapt
      Joined: 31.03.2010 Posts: 4,228
      You said he likes to limp but he raised this time. So, I believe you should ask yourself on the flop: do I have fold equity here?

      When I face donkeys, I like them in the pot and I´d c/c on this flop because a donkey will make mistakes even on obvious wet boards. He will never fold an overpair, even a top pair I´d say.

      And I do believe that you should fold to his 3bet on the flop. You still have room to fold and you are losing it almost always when he decides to get in.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello RainbowPonny,

      After taking a closer look and whilst you didn't even add all to combos to villain, like Q8o could also be in his range the equity hardly drops. We need ~42% equity which means that at the best we are going to be here break-even if we add all his range:

      Board: T:spade: J:heart: 9:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    59.27%  58.82%   0.45% { 99+, KQs, Q8s, JTs, 87s, 7h6h, KQo, Q8o, JTo, 87o }
      UTG+1  40.73%  40.28%   0.45% { AhTh }

      vs the given range we get only 40% equity. Which means that even if we add something like QJ/KJ into his combos we still wont have enough of equity and would be break-even.

      Which means getting it in wont end up with profit for us, at the best break-even. Nor we don't need to build image on anon. tables so it's kinda pointless.

      What we could do is that while we assume his range is wide on the BTN we could Check/Call and reevaluate the turn and keep his range wide and maybe even weaker draws/bluffs. If we Check/Raise here then we have to Check/Raise/Fold it unfortunately.

      Best Regards.