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[NL2-NL10] NL 2 semi-bluff bet sizing?

    • VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,491
      IPoker, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

      MP1: $2.36 (118 bb)
      MP2: $2.09 (104.5 bb)
      Hero (MP3): $2.03 (101.5 bb)
      CO: $1.77 (88.5 bb)
      BTN: $2.14 (107 bb)
      SB: $1 (50 bb)
      BB: $2 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A 8
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 3 folds, BB calls $0.06

      Flop: ($0.17) 8 T 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $0.12, Hero raises to ???

      villain is 9/9/5.2/4 (v/p/3bet/af) over 200 hands.
      Although this isn't a true steal, he normally folds to steals 100% on 12 occasions. In the big blind, he has never called an open raise before.

      I've got a piece of the flop, and the nut flush draw.
      How big to 3Bet?

      If his range is QQ+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+ -- which fits his stats and previous play.
      he pretty much missed the flop
      On the flop, I'm a 3:1 favourite against that range.

      All of his post-flop aggression is on the flop -- 0.0 on both turn and river.

  • 2 replies
    • jules97
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      I'd assume he'd 3bet qq+ so can take that out.

      But he would still call with low pocket pairs? Maybe he hit his set? 88 or 22?

      I doubt he'd donk with an underpair so, that probably leaves 99, JJ or a set.

      I'd call the flop. If he cbets the turn then he's almost certainly hit I think.
      I think he's going to check/fold down from the flop pretty much his whole range unless he's hit his set.

      I'm also curious on three betting sizes on the flop. Usually I just go 3x their cbet if it's around 3/4 of pot... :f_confused: :f_confused: :f_confused:
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      there are not so many better hands that you fold out raising on the flop (likely 99 and some Tx hands). Although with your equity you can always semibluff and get all-in (although likely you´re then against 22/88/TT). If you want to raise, I would make it 0.40$, since that is amount that would get better hands to fold and you can bet/call then 0.65$ most turn cards
      If I would called flop, I would also call turn. Also I would most of the times raise against loose players.

      best regards,