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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 88 fold preflop

    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players -

      BTN: $11.00
      Hero (SB): $25.70
      BB: $25.00
      CO: $10.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.37) Hero is SB with 8 :heart: 8 :spade:
      CO raises to $1, 3 folds


      Maybe a bit weird hand to post, but I'm really curious about this... :)
      I was considering calling or 3betting, but against this opponent with the given stacksize I ended up folding 88.
      1. If I 3bet
      a.) He calls, I mostly flop 2nd/3rd/4th pair, with awful stack-to-pot ratio
      b.) He shoves, but I dont have great equity vs the broke range of the fish
      2. If I call --> no implied odds, plus I dont know where I stand on most boards
      3.) If I fold --> seems like the option with the highest EV... :)
  • 2 replies
    • Schelles
      Joined: 05.07.2007 Posts: 2,177
      Good analysis, I'd fold too :)
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      I would solve that problem that way:
      CO is opening 20% of times. 88 is ahead of 20%, so I think playing on with my hand is profitable even if I´m oop:

      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      20% 47.56% 1,234,762,620 22,306,476
      88 52.44% 1,362,756,024 22,306,476

      So that leaves me 3-betting to 3$ (or 2.75$) or calling. Even if you flop often 2nd or 3rd pair he needs still has to flop at least straight draw or pair to continue his hand, which he usually misses half the times. So I think 3-betting for value would be my standard play.

      Since he opened 4x I think his range may be tighter, but even against 10% I´m not that behind
      10% 54.85% 707,909,688 15,433,320
      88 45.15% 581,432,640 15,433,320

      so my plan is to call pre-flop and c/c none K, A turn and c/f turn- mostly players would not barrel their air too often.

      best regards,